By Free Republic | Created at 2024-09-26 23:24:07 | Updated at 2024-10-01 01:49:43
4 days ago
This Is How Much More Likely Trump Is Expected to Win In November Over Harris
Townhall ^ | 09/26/23 | Sarah Arnold
Posted on 09/26/2024 3:37:22 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There’s a good chance former President Donald Trump will need the fireworks twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton planned to use in 2016 after a new poll shows his probability of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris has risen by ten points.
A J.L. Partners election model is making a bold prediction ahead of the 2024 election. Its forecast found that Trump’s chances of securing enough votes to win in November have increased by four points since Monday and nine points since the presidential debate.
The model considered the latest poll data, years' worth of election results, and economic indicators to calculate which candidate has the best chance of securing the electoral college. It produced about 8,000 probabilities of each candidate winning a state and the probability the candidates win the Electoral College.
While the model’s results show Harris winning the popular vote, historically blue swing states all tilt toward Trump. This means he would beat Harris over 50 percent of the time in various scenarios.
The model predicted the 45th president would claim victory in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, giving him a 55.2 percent chance of winning while giving Harris only 44.6 percent.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, suggested Harris’ “honeymoon,” which she welcomed after announcing her run, is drying up.
“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” Hunter said. “While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September.”
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2024; kamala; poll; trump
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1 posted on 09/26/2024 3:37:22 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
To: SeekAndFind
He won over Biden but yet ....
2 posted on 09/26/2024 3:38:06 PM PDT by SkyDancer ( ~ Am Yisrael Chai ~)
To: SeekAndFind
We all know the election has been rigged to ensure a Harris “victory”.
3 posted on 09/26/2024 3:38:46 PM PDT by AlaskaErik (There are three kinds of rats: Rats, Damned Rats, and DemocRats.)
To: SeekAndFind
4 posted on 09/26/2024 3:39:15 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
To: AlaskaErik; SkyDancer
5 posted on 09/26/2024 3:40:33 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
To: SeekAndFind
From your mouth to God´s ears!!
6 posted on 09/26/2024 3:40:49 PM PDT by szweig (HYHEY Have You Had Enough Yet??!?)
To: AlaskaErik
Well, we all know they will try without question.
To: SeekAndFind
k everyone knows they can’t win. we need to thinking about what they’re gonna pull when they don’t.
8 posted on 09/26/2024 3:47:05 PM PDT by xoxox
To: SeekAndFind
It’s the Electoral College is what’s important.
9 posted on 09/26/2024 3:48:21 PM PDT by SkyDancer ( ~ Am Yisrael Chai ~)
To: AlaskaErik
They have the same fraud in place as in 2020 and now they have all the illegals.
10 posted on 09/26/2024 3:48:33 PM PDT by Mercat
To: SeekAndFind
“While the race will be close,”
Every race is always close, ever notice that? Matter of fact, most of the time it’s hard to tell who actually won when the dust settles.
And if there is a clear winner, damned if your team don’t start working with the other team!
This is a rigged game... and we’re the mark folks.
11 posted on 09/26/2024 3:53:30 PM PDT by Sarcazmo (I live by the Golden Rule. As applied by others; I'm not selfish.)
To: Mercat
ok. but we have God and He knows truth of everything going on, and He will decide who to let us have as next president. He sees who is praying and staying in faith and who is caving or given up.
all the fraud etc in the world is nothing compared to what God can do. Look how many times He has pulled Israel out of various stuff they allow themselves to get caught up in.
If God so chooses, He will help the USA.
12 posted on 09/26/2024 3:55:25 PM PDT by b4me (Pray, and let God change you. He knows better than you or anyone else, who He made you to be.)
To: SeekAndFind
They will not let Trump occupy the White House again. Just saying.
13 posted on 09/26/2024 3:59:28 PM PDT by Huskrrrr (Alinsky, you magnificent Bastard, I read your book!)
To: Sarcazmo
The election is always close because when one side gets behind they “manufacture” the number of votes they need to win. Hence, the “unexplained” halt in the counting in 2020.
To: Huskrrrr
The dems already have millions of mail in ballots from illegals ready to go, they are just waiting to release them..so when this time the steal is beyond obvious, the left wants Trump supporters to riot, giving them a reason to jail all of us
To: SeekAndFind
Kamala Harris will increase the cost of energy, as Joe Biden did.
Obama 4.0
16 posted on 09/26/2024 4:06:15 PM PDT by linMcHlp
To: SeekAndFind
I see a very violent month in November. Being prepped is the best bet and ready for anything. A pre planned place to meet family that’s seperated and survival items.
17 posted on 09/26/2024 4:09:32 PM PDT by albie (U)
To: The_Media_never_lie
Yep.
And we’re not allowed to bring it up or cite it as evidence.
That should tell us who is really in charge.
18 posted on 09/26/2024 4:19:13 PM PDT by Sarcazmo (I live by the Golden Rule. As applied by others; I'm not selfish.)
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