By The New York Times (U.S.) | Created at 2024-09-28 09:14:41 | Updated at 2024-09-30 05:18:43
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A new poll comes out. How should you interpret it? Here are some rules of thumb.
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Sept. 28, 2024, 5:02 a.m. ET
Election polls are everywhere. In news articles, on social media and maybe even in your group chat, you’re probably seeing loads of numbers, some of which seem to contradict one another.
One poll says Vice President Kamala Harris is up, another shows former President Donald J. Trump in the lead, and another says 6 percent of Americans think it’s acceptable to put up Halloween decorations before Labor Day.
So let’s talk about how to read polls like a pro. Here, we’ll go over the basics of what to consider. In future installments, we’ll dive into the places polls can go wrong, and what it is that pre-election polls can really tell you about the race.
The golden rule: Never put too much stock in a single poll. Remember that polls are a snapshot of how people were feeling at a particular moment in time; they are subject to error, and are best understood in aggregate, such as through New York Times polling averages.
But when you do want to understand more about a single poll, consider the so-called P.S.T. No, not Pacific Standard Time — take a look at the pollster that conducted the poll, the sample population surveyed, and the time frame in which it was conducted.
The pollsters: Not all are created equal
Some polling firms have better track records then others, and are more transparent about their methods. Others are new, or politically partisan. Knowing the difference can help you understand the poll in the right context.
