Top scientists predict 'major' hurricanes for 2025 with eight states in the path of dangerous storms

Scientists predict nine hurricanes could impact the US this year, with eight states at significant risk of facing a major storm. 

Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, and researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) suggested the US will see an 'above-average' number of named storms in 2025. 

This year, hurricane activity is expected to be about 25 percent higher than the average from 1991 to 2020. In 2024, it was about 30 percent higher than that average.

According to their analysis, up to 17 named storms could form, with nine becoming hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, four should reach 'major' strength (Category 3 to 5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

The Gulf Coast and East Coast will face the brunt of the season's impact, as usual. 

But eight states in these regions have a more than 30 percent chance of a hurricane coming within 50 miles of their borders. These include Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas.

While Florida has the highest risk with a 65 percent chance of a hurricane tracking near the sunshine state. 

North Carolina and Louisiana aren't far behind at 46 percent, followed by Texas (44 percent), Georgia (37 percent), Mississippi and South Carolina (both 35 percent), and  Alabama (34 percent). 

As for the probability of major hurricanes impacting these states, Florida still faces the highest risk at 35 percent.

The sunshine state is followed by Texas (19 percent), Louisiana (18 percent), Alabama and South Carolina (both 10 percent), Mississippi and North Carolina (both nine percent), and Georgia (eight percent). 

The researchers detailed their findings in a report published Thursday. 

In a statement, they warned coastal Americans to 'take proper precautions.'

'It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,' said Michael Bell, co-author and professor of atmospheric science at CSU.

This report is one of several hurricane season forecasts that will come out this spring. 

AccuWeather published theirs last week, predicting 13 to 18 named storms for 2025, including seven to 10 hurricanes. 

Of those hurricanes, three to six could directly impact the US, and three to five may reach 'major' strength, AccuWeather estimates. 

'AccuWeather is forecasting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and direct impacts to the United States,' said lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.

He added that there is a 20 percent chance of more than 18 named storms this year. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will release their 2025 hurricane season forecast in late May. 

Last year's hurricane season was very active and extremely destructive, with a total of 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes.

Of those hurricanes, five reached 'major' strength: Helene, Milton, Beryl, Kirk and Rafael.

According to the CSU researchers, the most significant hurricanes of the 2024 season were Helene and Milton.

The combined impact of these tropical cyclones caused over 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion in damage in the southeastern US, they reported.

Category 4 Hurricane Helene was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since 2017. It slammed into Florida's Big Bend region on September 26, then spread destruction up the East Coast, particularly in North Carolina.

Hurricane Milton, a Category 5, was one of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9 and devastated the sunshine state. 

Research shows that climate change is worsening hurricane impacts in the US by increasing their intensity and decreasing the speed at which they travel, according to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. 

The CSU researchers pointed to above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea as a primary driver of the heightened storm activity they expect to see this year. 

'A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water,' they explained.

'Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.' 

Another key predictor of hurricane season intensity is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern.

ENSO is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). 

'On periods ranging from about three to seven years, the surface waters across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from [1.8°F to 5.4°F], compared to normal,' the agency explains. 

El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle, with El Niño characterized by warming of the ocean surface and La Niña characterized by cooling.

There is also a neutral, in-between phase where Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are generally close to average. 

El Niño increases high-altitude westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, according to the CSU researchers. This decreases the chances of hurricane formation and intensification in the Atlantic.

La Niña, on the other hand, tends to increase the intensity of hurricane season. 

The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by weak La Niña conditions, the CSU researchers reported. But they expect it to transition into the neutral phase over the next couple of months. 

The chances of a transition to El Niño are 'quite low' at 13 percent, which means we can expect atmospheric conditions to favor hurricane formation across the tropical Atlantic this year, the researchers concluded.