Tottenham vs Liverpool Prediction

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with our Tottenham vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Will the Reds be top of the tree at Christmas?

Tottenham vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Insights

• Liverpool are favourites for victory on Sunday, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 52.7% chance of coming out on top.
• Liverpool have only lost two of their last 23 Premier League meetings with Tottenham, winning 15, drawing six and scoring in each of the teams’ last 17 head-to-head matches.
• A win for the Reds will ensure they top the Premier League table on Christmas Day for the first time since 2020. However, they have only won the title in one (2019-20) of the last seven top-flight campaigns in which they have been top on 25 December.

The final set of pre-Christmas Premier League fixtures are upon us, with Arne Slot’s Liverpool hoping to still be top of the tree come 25 December. They visit Tottenham in Sunday’s late kick-off, shortly after their nearest rivals Chelsea go to Goodison Park to take on Everton.

Having beaten Southampton 2-1 to reach the EFL Cup semi-finals on Wednesday, the Reds have still only lost one of their 24 matches under Slot in all competitions – against Nottingham Forest in September.

Victory will ensure Liverpool top the Premier League table at Christmas for the first time since 2020. However, the Reds have only won the title in one of the last seven top-flight campaigns in which they have led the way at Christmas, doing so in 2019-20.

Their tremendous start to life under Slot owes much to the efforts of Mohamed Salah, who has made plenty of headlines on and off the field this campaign.

With no further news on a new contract for the Egyptian, his glittering spell on Merseyside could be drawing to a close. If that is to be the case, he appears determined to go out on a high and has already marked himself out as the outstanding candidate for end-of-season honours. 

In the Premier League’s 32-year history, no player has ever reached double figures for both goals and assists in a single season before Christmas Day. With 13 goals and nine assists to his name this term, Salah will make history if he tees up a goal on Sunday.

Salah appears well on course to achieve the best creative campaign of his career, having never previously surpassed 13 assists in a single league season (his tally from 2021-22). 

Only Arsenal‘s Bukayo Saka (10) has more assists in the Premier League this term, though expected assists (xA) data may suggest Salah has benefitted from some excellent finishing from his teammates. Indeed, his total of 3.3 xA this term has been bettered by 10 Premier League players, with the likes of Dwight McNeil (3.95), Bryan Mbeumo (3.6) and Youri Tielemans (3.5) among them.

Indeed, Salah’s figure of 0.6 assists per 90 minutes in 2024-25 is easily his best in any single Premier League season, but he managed more xA per 90 in 2023-24 (0.27) and 2021-22 (0.24, compared to 0.23 this season). He has created an average of 1.8 chances per game this campaign, which is actually his third-lowest figure in a Premier League season, his high of 2.3 coming last term.

Nevertheless, Salah’s importance to Slot’s winning machine cannot be overstated. In fact, his 22 goal involvements in the league this term account for 71% of Liverpool’s total goal tally (31), by far the highest share of any player in the competition.

While Salah is looking to make Premier League history, fellow attacker Diogo Jota is eyeing redemption after being sent off in this exact fixture last season – a 2-1 defeat for Liverpool in September 2023.

Jota came off the bench to score the final goal in Liverpool’s 2-2 draw with Fulham last weekend, his eighth Premier League goal as a substitute for the Reds – no player has more in the competition since his Anfield arrival in September 2020. 

Tottenham, meanwhile, have continued to blow hot and cold, trouncing Southampton 5-0 last Sunday then beating Manchester United on Thursday 4-3 in a thrilling EFL Cup quarter-final. Those results came on the back of a five-game winless run in all competitions.

“Are you not entertained?” was how Ange Postecoglou reacted to Spurs’ chaotic midweek win, but the inconsistency of his team, who have now scored three or more goals in nine different games this season, has frustrated many.

Only Chelsea (37) have bettered their 36 Premier League goals this term, while they rank fourth in the division for expected goals (31.2 xG) and total shots (249), and second for shots on target (97).

Defensively, however, it has all too often been a mess. Spurs’ figure of 24.3 expected goals against (xGA) is the league’s eighth worst, their opponents generating better chances against them overall than those allowed by 15th-placed Crystal Palace (22.5) or 16th-placed Everton (20.3).

The excruciating demands of Tottenham’s high press proved costly in a 4-3 defeat to Chelsea last time out at home, and should they persist with a similar approach against Liverpool’s livewire attackers, this could be another difficult outing.

Only Chelsea (28) have attempted more shots from fast breaks than Liverpool (23) in the Premier League this campaign, with Salah (10) leading the way among all players in the division.

In what could be an open, entertaining affair, Tottenham will pin their hopes on captain Son-Heung-min, who scored one and assisted two at Southampton last time out in the Premier League.

His two assists took him level with Darren Anderton as the Spurs player with the most assists in Premier League history (68), while he also became just the 20th player to score in at least 100 different Premier League matches.

Son needed 316 appearances in the competition to do so, meaning he accomplished the feat quicker than players including Teddy Sheringham (329), Nicolas Anelka (331), Robbie Keane (335) and Jermain Defoe (338).

Tottenham vs Liverpool Head-to-Head

Given their recent results against Tottenham, Liverpool should travel south in a confident mood. They have only lost two of their last 23 Premier League meetings with Spurs, winning 15 and drawing six, while scoring in each of their last 17 matches.

Tottenham did, however, win this exact fixture 2-1 last season, with that match overshadowed by controversy as Jürgen Klopp’s Reds went down to nine men following red cards for Curtis Jones and Jota. 

Luis Díaz, meanwhile, saw a potential opening goal chalked off incorrectly by VAR Darren England, which referees’ body PGMOL later apologised for. 

That game was decided by a Joël Matip own goal in stoppage time, the sixth 90th-minute winner to be scored in Premier League meetings between Tottenham and Liverpool, more than any other fixture in the competition’s history.

Tottenham could now win back-to-back home matches against Liverpool in the Premier League for the first time since enjoying a run of five victories between 2008 and 2012.

Spurs have, though, lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table, with both exceptions coming against Manchester City (2-2 in August 2019, 3-2 in February 2022). They have lost all five home matches in this run.

Tottenham vs Liverpool Prediction

The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool firm favourites to take all three points at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, assigning the visitors a 52.7% chance of victory.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Spurs were only victorious in 24.6%, with 22.6% finishing level.

Slot’s visitors are now overwhelming favourites to dethrone Man City and win their second Premier League title, according to the supercomputer.

They win the Premier League in a huge 82.2% of our season simulations, ahead of Arsenal (10.1%), Chelsea (6.1%) and City (1.6%).

Tottenham, meanwhile, finish fifth in a league-high 17.5% of projections, only making the top four in 5.6% of scenarios.

Tottenham vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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