By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-10-29 21:22:15 | Updated at 2024-11-06 00:05:55
1 week ago
Two of England’s biggest clubs meet in the EFL Cup on Wednesday in what is arguably the tie of the round. Man City‘s domestic form gives them the edge with the Opta supercomputer, but is that justified? Learn more with our Tottenham vs Man City prediction.
Tottenham vs Man City Stats: The Key Insights
- Man City are strong favourites with the Opta supercomputer, winning this game 56.7% of the time.
- After failing to score in each of their first five away games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium between 2019 and 2023, Man City have won their last two there without conceding.
- Tottenham have been eliminated in their last three League Cup ties against fellow Premier League sides. They went out to Chelsea in 2021-22, Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 and Fulham in 2023-24.
Tottenham welcome Premier League leaders Manchester City to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Wednesday as they go head-to-head in the fourth round of the EFL Cup.
This will be the first League Cup meeting between the teams since the 2021 final, won 1-0 by Man City at Wembley. Tottenham have won the other three games between the sides in the EFL Cup, however, in 1992 (1-0), 2003 (3-1) and 2007 (2-0).
These sides enjoyed/endured contrasting fortunes at the weekend. Spurs laboured away from home at Crystal Palace to lose 1-0. In a fairly lifeless display from the away side, Jean-Philippe Mateta’s first-half goal was enough to seal all three points for the Eagles.
It was yet another frustrating example of Tottenham’s inconsistency under Ange Postecoglou. Victories over West Ham and AZ Alkmaar have now been bookended by bad defeats against Brighton and Crystal Palace.
They currently sit ninth in the Premier League and are predicted to finish sixth. Winning the Europa League will be a priority for Spurs, but with just four fixtures to get through, the EFL Cup is arguably their best chance of winning a trophy this season.
Spurs almost didn’t get this far, though. Championship side Coventry City were minutes away from knocking them out in the third round. The Sky Blues were leading 1-0, before goals from Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson turned the game on its head.
Manchester City come into this game on the back of a five-game winning run in all competitions since their 1-1 draw with Newcastle. Their most recent opponents, Southampton, might have been fearing the worst when Erling Haaland scored his 11th league goal of the season at the weekend to open the scoring.
But despite taking 22 shots and generating almost three expected goals, Pep Guardiola’s men had to settle for a narrow win. Still, they remain overwhelming favourites to claim a record fifth consecutive Premier League title.
City have already gone one better than last year in the EFL Cup. They were dumped out in the third round in 2023-24 by Newcastle but eased past Watford in the third round thanks to goals from Jérémy Doku and Matheus Nunes.
In team news, Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Doku will all miss out for City. Son Heung-min, who was absent for Spurs’ defeat against Palace at the weekend, has not recovered in time to feature here.
Tottenham vs Manchester City Prediction
Man City’s domestic form makes them strong favourites to win this game with the the Opta supercomputer.
You have to go back to the FA Cup final last year to find the last time they lost a competitive game. They’ve also got the better of Spurs of late and have won their last two games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium without conceding.
Those factors see the model give them a 56.7% chance of winning the game in 90 minutes. Spurs have a 21.5% of progressing, while the draw – which would send the game to penalties – occurs in 21.8% of simulations.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each side.
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