By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-10-29 21:22:16 | Updated at 2024-11-05 21:07:56
6 days ago
Tottenham are the favourites against West Ham in the eyes of the Opta supercomputer. Will Ange Postecoglou’s side respond to their latest Premier League setback? We analyse that question in our Tottenham vs West Ham prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs West Ham Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Tottenham to come out on top, with the hosts triumphant in 55.4% of pre-match simulations.
- West Ham have not defeated Spurs in back-to-back league visits since 1966.
- Brennan Johnson has scored in each of his last six games for Tottenham.
Ange Postecoglou will desperately want to see a response from Tottenham when they host West Ham in Saturday’s early Premier League kick-off.
Spurs may have needed the international break to recover from their humiliation at Brighton last time out, throwing away a two-goal lead to lose 3-2 as Postecoglou fumed at the “worst defeat” of his tenure so far.
Some positives could have been taken before Georginio Rutter – helped by woeful Spurs defending – led an inspired turnaround for Fabian Hürzeler’s side, with Brennan Johnson again on target for Tottenham.
The Wales winger has scored in each of his last six games in all competitions for Spurs, a feat last achieved by Harry Kane, with those six goals one more than Johnson had previously managed in his 38 appearances for the club.
James Maddison also slipped an attempt fortuitously under Bart Verbruggen, marking his second goal in three league games. His next strike will be his 50th in the competition.
Yet for all of that first-half fluidity and attacking prowess, a comical collapse left Spurs ninth in the league table heading into the weekend, and that position may not improve here considering their form against fellow London clubs.
Postecoglou’s men have lost four of their last six Premier League games against their capital-city rivals (W1 D1), as many as they head in their previous 16 (W9 D3). They have, however, been given a big boost with the news that Son Heung-min is available again after missing Spurs’ last three games due to injury.
In stark contrast, West Ham are unbeaten in their last three Premier League away London derbies (W1 D2), against Crystal Palace, Fulham and Brentford, their longest such run since a six-game stretch between January and December 1999.
That record may raise an eyebrow for some concerned West Ham supporters, with pressure seemingly mounting on Julen Lopetegui before their 4-1 hammering of Ipswich Town before the pause for international football.
Michail Antonio, Mohammed Kudus, Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paquetá were all on target in the drubbing, though the challenge is now to build on that performance, having not managed back-to-back league victories since March.
Antonio needed less than a minute to find the net against Ipswich and will fancy his chances again on Saturday, with his six goals against Tottenham more than he’s scored against any other Premier League opponent. Five of those six goals have been the first of the match, with only Ryan Giggs scoring the opener more against Tottenham in Premier League history (6).
Lopetegui will be reliant on Antonio to lead the line, though Bowen’s impact should not be ignored. He has been involved in 33 open-play shot-ending sequences this campaign, more than any other West Ham player this term.
In the rout of Ipswich, Bowen also became the first West Ham player since Antonio – against Arsenal in March 2021 – to have 5+ shots and create 5+ chances in a single Premier League match.
Tottenham vs West Ham Head-to-Head
Postecoglou could hardly ask for a better fixture to get his side back on track, with Tottenham only managing more Premier League victories against Everton (31) and Manchester City (28) than their 26 over West Ham.
West Ham did come from behind to win this exact fixture 2-1 last season, however, as Bowen and James Ward-Prowse were on target after Cristian Romero’s early opener.
Spurs have not suffered back-to-back home defeats in the league against West Ham since doing so in April and November 1966, though, and another record could play in their favour on Saturday.
Tottenham and West Ham have faced off in seven Premier League meetings straight after the international break, with the Hammers failing to win any of those (L4 D3).
Tottenham vs West Ham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggles to see much other than a Tottenham win, with the hosts victorious in a dominant 55.4% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
West Ham managed rare back-to-back wins over their London rivals in just 21.6% of the same data-led sims. The draw came in slightly more often at 23.0%.
Spurs’ collapse at Brighton saw their top-four chances drop to 15.4% in Opta’s end-of-season predictions, with West Ham ending the season in their current 12th position most often, doing so in 13.4% of simulations.
Tottenham vs West Ham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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