‘Tremendous risk’: can Asean unity endure if US-China tensions erupt?

Southeast Asia is playing an ever-growing part in China’s investment and diplomatic decisions, particularly as Beijing’s rivalry with Washington heats up. In the second of a four-part series on China’s ties with Asean, Dewey Sim looks at the challenges facing the bloc and what it must do to remain relevant.

A long and heated rivalry between the United States and China could spell trouble for Asean – a scenario that would expose cracks within – and pose “tremendous risk” to – the regional bloc as member states grow increasingly divided over their approaches to the superpowers, according to diplomatic observers.

The stakes are high. If the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations fails to navigate the intensifying US-China competition, it could become irrelevant on the world stage, they say.

Staying on the fence while tensions simmer between Washington and Beijing is familiar territory for nations in the bloc, with top officials from the region often stressing their countries will not take sides.

But that routine may soon become less tenable, according to Muhammad Waffaa Kharisma, a researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, who predicted it will become increasingly difficult for the Asean bloc to collectively maintain its “passive neutrality” towards the US-China rivalry.

“Ideally, Asean should assert a form of autonomy and agency commensurate with its growing size and projected growth and importance,” he said.