Tropical Storm Helene forecast to be most powerful storm to hit US in a year

Tropical Storm Helene is expected to hit Florida’s Gulf coast later on Thursday as a forceful hurricane and is forecast to potentially be the most powerful storm to hit the US in more than a year.

The storm is expected to intensify to a category 3 hurricane as it roars across the Gulf of Mexico. It was

moving off the coast of Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico, where it was set to “rapidly intensify to a major hurricane and grow in size in the eastern Gulf of Mexico [with] danger of life-threatening storm surge along [the] entire west Florida coast and Big Bend area,” the National Hurricane Center said on Wednesday morning.

The center, part of a federal agency, said Helene is expected to have a bigger high wind expanse than 90% of other major hurricanes, with wind field and rain bands expected to stretch more than 140 miles (225km) east of the eye.

Forecasters early on Wednesday morning predicted storm intensification from a 45-mph (72-kmh) tropical storm to a category 3 major hurricane in less than 48 hours.

On its current track, the powerful core of the storm could cross directly over Florida’s state capital of Tallahassee. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been issued for the state’s west coast, from the Florida Keys and inland to Orlando, as well as most of the east coast, and up through the so-called Big Bend coast and area around Tallahassee, as the coast then stretches west into the Florida panhandle.

Evacuations of thousands of people south of Tallahassee were underway on Wednesday morning and on Tuesday afternoon, Joe Biden declared a state of emergency for Florida. The US president pledged federal resources ahead of the storm hitting.

Ron DeSantis, Florida governor, expanded a state of emergency to 61 of Florida’s 67 counties and mandatory evacuations are set to begin in the Big Bend area, where the highest storm surges are anticipated.

At a press conference Tuesday morning, DeSantis said the state had deployed Florida national guard, search and rescue teams, and Florida fish and wildlife crews to respond. The US federal emergency management agency has also deployed teams.

“The wind you can hide from,” DeSantis added. “But it is the water that can be very, very devastating if you remain there when you are told to evacuate.”

Kevin Guthrie, Federal Emergency Management Agency director, said Helene is set to be a very large storm, even compared with recent storms, warning it could be “nearly twice the size of Debby and Idalia, with possibly a stronger core”.

Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the hurricane center, said: “The wind swath is going to be huge with this system, and it is basically going to carve a path right over a good portion of the Florida peninsula, including the highly-populated I-4 corridor.”

Further north, Georgia governor Brian Kemp also declared a state of emergency and directed management teams “to prepare for and direct resources well in advance of the storm’s arrival. Stay vigilant and stay safe,” he said on X.

The storm’s rapid intensification comes as water temperatures in the Gulf reach 90F (32C). Hurricane predictors had been expecting an unusually busy season but that has not materialized, allowing storm-friendly sea temperatures to increase without interruption and fuel Helene’s power, driven by the climate crisis that is rapidly warming seas and is believed to intensify storms.

When Helene makes US landfall, expected late on Thursday or early Friday, it will be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the US this year and the fifth to slam Florida since 2022.