Since becoming president just over a year ago, Javier Milei has made it clear who his ideological beacon is: Donald Trump. Now he is preparing to join him at next Monday’s presidential inauguration in Washington – not just as a fan but also as his main man in Latin America.
Trump “is the president of the most important country on planet Earth,” Milei said in a recent interview.
The self-declared “anarcho-capitalist” was the first foreign leader to visit Trump at his Mar-a-Lago Florida estate after the Republican’s November US election victory.
The pair share right-wing ideologies, and some personality traits. They are both showmen known to be abrasive towards their detractors, dismissive of “wokeism,” and supportive of cost-cutting and deregulation.
Milei is now a reference point for much of the far right, who love his “anti-woke” agenda and his “chainsaw” to slash public spending. But while he and Trump have much in common, analysts do not clearly see what Milei stands to gain politically from a close friendship with his ideological idol.
“The friendship between Trump and Milei goes beyond the Argentine leader’s constant praise of his US counterpart,” Benjamin Gedan, Latin America Director of the Wilson Center, told AFP. “Milei has consolidated himself as one of Trump’s most important foreign allies.”
Both have the backing of Tesla and SpaceX boss Elon Musk, who has taken note of Milei’s approach to budget-slashing ahead of taking on his own new role as the head of Trump’s “Department of Government Efficiency.” Musk is expected to be at Trump’s inauguration next week.
“He’s in another league,” said Milei recently about Musk to Uruguayan outlet El Observador. “He’s the Thomas Alva Edison of the 21st century.”
Milei’s relationship with the richest man on the planet has also evolved in the past year – now Musk “wants to borrow the chainsaw to make drastic budget cuts in the United States,” commented Gedan.
Geopolitically attuned
The two leaders are not just on the same ideological page. Trump sees in Milei a key ally to counter the influence in the region of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, backed by Russia.
“There will clearly be a very strong political affinity. Argentina will be solidly aligned with US priorities at both the global and regional level,” said Ariel González Levaggi, the co-ordinator of the US Committee for CARI (Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales). “This positions the Milei government as the main US partner in the region for the next few years.”
“Milei has consolidated himself as one of Trump’s most important foreign allies,” agreed Gedan.
Trump will need an ally in the region as he ramps up pressure on his ideological foes, while also sparring with Mexico over immigration and with Panama over control of the Panama Canal. But even if he can be of use to Trump in a region where the US leader has few right-wing allies, what does Milei stand to benefit?
Friends with benefits?
After surprising his critics by winding up the year with his fiscal accounts in order, inflation tamed and the country relatively calm despite the harsh austerity, Milei’s next objective is to obtain a new loan from the International Monetary Fund
The La Libertad Avanza leader is seeking money from the IMF, which his country is already repaying a record US$44-billion loan issued with Trump’s support during his first term in office.
Milei need to make his friendship with Trump count, surmounting the obstacles which the IMF might place against the delivery of fresh funds.
Levaggi describes the chance of any new agreement as “difficult.”
Trump has appointed a Milei critic – former Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) head Mauricio Claver-Carone – as his special envoy to Latin America.
Claver-Carone has already said that any talk of a new loan for Argentina was nothing but “an illusion,” a “waste of time.”
“Perhaps some additional disbursements could be released” from the existing loan, said Gonzalez Levaggi. “But a new deal, a new loan? Unlikely.”
Another difference between the two leaders is on trade. Trump seeks to protect US domestic industry through import tariffs, while Milei is an ardent free-market advocate. Ideally, he would like a free-trade agreement with Washington. “In this context, Milei could be left disappointed if Trump imposes new tariffs on the whole world, including on Argentine exports,” said Claudio Loser, a former IMF Western Hemisphere chief.
China's regional role
An alliance could still carry risks for Argentina, warned Alejandro Frenkel, an expert in international relations at the Universidad Nacional de San Martín.
"Any Latin American country which deepens or unbalances its relationships in favour of the United States to the detriment of China could end up hurt," he said in an interview
China is Argentina’s second-most important trading partner after Brazil. Last year, Beijing extended a currency swap with Buenos Aires worth billions of dollars, providing much-needed relief for the nation’s depleted foreign reserves.
Frenkel highlighted the Asian country’s important infrastructural investments in the region, among them a mega-port inaugurated in Peru last November, as evidence of an economic influence which "the United States cannot offer."
Jorge Arguello, who served as Argentina's ambassador to Washington under US presidents Barack Obama, Trump and Joe Biden, says he "never saw a particular interest in Argentina, nor Latin America" in that office.
It is only when there is a presence "of external actors like China or Russia that alarms go off" in Washington, he added.
Despite once vowing he would never make deals with communists, the usually incendiary Milei showed his pragmatic side when he cordially met with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro last November.
The reality is that Milei's hopes for a free-trade agreement with the United States may have to wait for the departure of Trump and his "America First" agenda, analysts say.
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by Leila Macor, AFP
