Trump’s choice of China hawks signals rough seas ahead for Sino-US ties

BEIJING – On July 13, 2020, then Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying announced at a daily news conference that Beijing was imposing retaliatory sanctions on a number of Americans for “serious interference in China’s internal affairs”.

Among the four was congressman Marco Rubio, who had been instrumental in pushing through a Bill that bans US companies from sourcing goods made by forced labour in China’s western Xinjiang region.

The problem is: Mr Rubio, one of the most unpopular politicians in China, is now going to be in charge of handling Washington’s relationship with Beijing.

Seen as among the most vociferous China critics on Capitol Hill, the 53-year-old, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for a presidential run in 2016, has been picked by President-elect Donald Trump as secretary of state, his administration’s top diplomat.

Chinese state media have long labelled Mr Rubio an ambitious “anti-China trailblazer” who bashes China in the name of bolstering his image and seeking influence.

“The Chinese will see this as Trump throwing down the gauntlet,” said Associate Professor Hoo Tiang Boon, who studies China’s foreign policy and US-China relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

“Trump made this move out of his own political considerations, not necessarily because of specific foreign policy considerations,” he added.

“But from the Chinese perspective, it will be seen as a slap in the face, and it will certainly create complications.”

Foreign policy experts have projected that Beijing is in for an unprecedentedly tough time, now that Trump has begun to stack his new Cabinet with China hawks.

There is his national security adviser pick, congressman Mike Waltz, 50, a member of the House China Task Force, which looks at how the US can compete with China.

In 2021, Mr Waltz described the US as being “in a Cold War with the Chinese Communist Party” and advocated for a boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, citing China’s “genocide” in Xinjiang, crackdown on anti-government protests in Hong Kong, and its handling of the Covid-19 outbreak as reasons.

He co-wrote an op-ed in The Economist ahead of the US election in November arguing that the next president should urgently end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East so that the US can focus its strategic attention “where it should be: Countering the greater threat from the Chinese Communist Party”.

Then, there is Mr Pete Hegseth, 44, whom Trump has chosen as the next defence secretary. The Fox News commentator and host has accused China of building a military dedicated to defeating the US.

Trump’s nominated Central Intelligence Agency chief, Mr John Ratcliffe, 59, who served as director of national intelligence during the last months of Trump’s first term, has labelled China the biggest national security threat to the US.

There is also talk of the return of former trade czar Robert Lighthizer, 77, who led Trump’s trade war against China from 2017 to 2021.

But none compare to Mr Rubio’s efforts to actively seek to thwart China over a swathe of issues, from Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan, to TikTok and Huawei. For these, he has been sanctioned twice by Beijing.

While China has had the experience of dealing with Trump and his shock-and-awe approach and is better prepared to take the hits this time around, it needs to brace itself for a relationship that will be marked by greater confrontation and decoupling.

China specialist Scott Kennedy said of the incoming government: “I think it is more likely that the administration is less interested in de-risking and building guard rails for a robust relationship and engaging in dialogue the way the Biden administration has, and more interested in an even more hawkish approach.”

That means the likelihood of high tariffs early on in Trump’s second term, as well as the use of other tools to restrict its ability to develop technologies, and ramping up the contest of power.

Chinese scholars say there is also worry that Trump could provide more security assistance to Taiwan or, worse, abandon the US’ long-held one-China policy. 

But others argue that given his transactional nature, he could likely do to Taiwan what he has said he would do to allies such as South Korea, Japan and Nato – compel it to increase its share of defence spending.

Beijing, at least in the first 100 days of Trump’s new term, will want to watch for signals from him and his new Cabinet. This includes whether Mr Rubio will moderate his tone, now that he is in a bureaucratic position. 

But it will be wary of making any moves without the US taking the first step, said Prof Hoo.

Meanwhile, it could try to use back channels to get a better grip on what the new president might do next. Billionaire Elon Musk, whom Trump has named to lead his government’s efficiency drive, could be a broker, given his relationship with Chinese high-ranking officials.

There has also been talk of Chinese leaders tapping former ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai and retired trade czar Liu He to help engage the Americans.

But if Beijing concludes that the incoming Trump administration’s goal is decoupling and weakening China, and views it as an economic war, then it is likely to respond vigorously.

This could be in the form of not just tariffs, but also a range of actions in the economic, diplomatic and security spaces, to “push back as hard as they can”, said Dr Kennedy, who is from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

China would also amp up its charm offensive to cultivate ties with other countries and peel them away from the US by dishing out carrots including market access, while increasing efforts to stabilise its economy.

US-China relations expert Shen Dingli believes the pragmatism that China and the Republican Party share could pave the way for relations to improve over the four years under President Joe Biden.

“Trump doesn’t want a war between Russia and Ukraine, nor a war in the Middle East or in the Taiwan Strait. What he wants is jobs, exports and the revival of the American manufacturing industry. China can definitely help,” Professor Shen said, adding that the resurrection of a deal for China to buy US$200 billion (S$269 billion) worth of US goods inked during Trump’s previous term could help to assuage him.

His new Cabinet might feature hardliners who have taken a tough stance against China previously, but much will depend on Trump. His first term was characterised by a high turnover of top officials, including two secretaries of state, two defence secretaries and three chiefs of staff.

“His wolf warriors are there to support him. Does Rubio want to be fired by Trump after half a year?” said Prof Shen.