Trump’s Return Fails to Boost Dollar Against Real

The dollar’s value against the Brazilian real took an unexpected turn on Wednesday, November 6, 2024. Despite Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the US currency closed at R$ 5.67, marking its third consecutive day of decline.

The day began with a surge in the dollar’s value. In the early hours of trading, it reached R$ 5.86, reflecting initial market reactions to Trump’s victory.

However, this upward trend didn’t last long. As the day progressed, the dollar lost ground against the real. This shift came as investors turned their attention to Brazil’s fiscal policies and interest rate decisions.

The US currency ended the day at R$ 5.6759, a 1.26% decrease. This performance stood in contrast to global trends. The DXY index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose by 1.67%.

This divergence highlights the unique factors influencing Brazil’s currency market. Trump’s victory initially sparked concerns among investors.

Trump’s Return Fails to Boost Dollar Against Real. (Photo Internet reproduction)

They anticipated his policies might lead to higher inflation and growth in the US. This expectation suggested the Federal Reserve would need to maintain high interest rates.

Additionally, Trump’s plans for trade tariffs and skepticism towards multilateral institutions could pressure global growth. These factors typically increase demand for the dollar, driving up its value.

Brazil’s Economic Resilience

However, domestic factors in Brazil countered these global pressures. Investors eagerly awaited announcements on fiscal measures from the Brazilian government.

This anticipation helped strengthen the real against the dollar. Fernando Haddad, Brazil’s Finance Minister, played a key role in shaping market sentiment.

He stated that all government ministers were aware of the need to reinforce the fiscal framework. This statement hinted at potential economic stability measures.

Haddad also mentioned that President Lula da Silva had concluded a round of meetings on fiscal measures. The next step would likely involve discussions with Congress leaders about these measures.

Investors were also keenly watching Brazil’s interest rate decision. The Central Bank‘s Monetary Policy Committee was set to announce its decision after market close.

Consensus expected a 50 basis point increase, bringing the Selic rate to 11.25% per year. This complex interplay of global and local factors created a unique market dynamic.

It demonstrated Brazil’s economic resilience in the face of significant international political shifts. The day’s events serve as a reminder of the intricate relationship between politics, economics, and currency markets.

In short, they highlight the importance of considering both global trends and local policies when analyzing currency movements.