By The Straits Times | Created at 2024-11-14 07:57:14 | Updated at 2024-11-24 22:02:08
1 week ago
SEOUL – Donald Trump’s election victory is prompting South Korea to rethink the possibility of sending weapons directly to Ukraine, a decision that could have a big impact on the direction of the war.
President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government now has to consider the US president-elect’s stance as it looks at whether to change its long-standing policy of not sending lethal aid to Kyiv, according to an official who asked not to be identified as discussions are private and ongoing.
Seoul is also looking at how Trump’s approach to the war will affect support for Ukraine among a range of countries, another government official said.
The comments suggest that South Korea is now less likely to send munitions to Ukraine unless Pyongyang takes further action or there’s more clarity on how Trump will act on Ukraine when he completes the move from the campaign trail to the Oval Office.
“It would be pretty awkward for South Korea, not even a member of Nato, to step in at this point if Trump moves in to the White House and wants to pull out from the conflict,” said Professor Kim Jung, a political science expert at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
Mr Yoon’s office said the government will examine possible scenarios from Russia-North Korea military cooperation following Pyongyang’s deployment of troops, and implement countermeasures.
“We will closely coordinate with our ally and partners in that process,” it said in a statement in response to Bloomberg questions on South Korea’s latest thinking about sending arms to Ukraine.
Seoul has long resisted calls from Western allies to tap into its vast military stockpiles and directly send weapons or ammunition to Ukraine, choosing instead to help Kyiv through non-lethal aid.
However, North Korea’s deployment of up to 12,000 troops in Russia – according to US estimates – has shifted that stance, with Mr Yoon saying Pyongyang’s direct involvement in the conflict poses a threat to his country’s security.
“We are not ruling out weapons support,” Mr Yoon said at a press conference last week as the US election outcome a few hours earlier was still sinking in. “If we provide weapons support, defensive weapons will be the first under consideration.”
Exporting lethal aid to Kyiv would signal strong support for Ukraine. It might also benefit South Korean businesses if they participate in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.
But the move would anger Moscow, risk escalating the conflict, and spur further provocations from Pyongyang.
“Even if South Korea could not prevent all of North Korea’s actions, it could perhaps affect North Korea’s degree of participation,” said Dr Naoko Aoki, a political scientist with Rand Corp in Washington. “There is a lot more that North Korea could be doing, and South Korea wants to minimise North Korean activities.”
It’s a decision the Biden administration would likely welcome, but it’s less clear how Trump and his team would respond.
The president-elect pledged on the campaign trail to end the war “within 24 hours” by getting Russia and Ukraine to negotiate, raising questions about the future of US aid for Kyiv.
Already European Union leaders are trying to figure out whether they can keep the Ukrainian effort going if Trump decides to shut off support from the US.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing to send an envoy to Seoul, aiming to appeal for weapons and persuade South Korea to reconsider its stance in its favour.
South Korea has vast stores of the 155mm artillery shells that are the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) standard used by Ukraine.
The US and South Korea have repeatedly accused North Korean leader Kim Jong Un of sending munitions and ballistic missiles to aid Russian president Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, with South Korea estimating that as many as 8 million rounds have been sent.
Supplies of North Korean ammunition to Moscow are a bigger problem for Ukraine than help Russia is getting from other places, including Iran, Kyiv’s military intelligence chief Kyrlyo Budanov said in September.
Seoul’s cautious stance on providing weapons to Kyiv stems partly from its wariness of turning Russia into its own foe.
Russia’s foreign ministry has threatened “security consequences” for South Korea if it sends weapons to Ukraine.
The growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow have emboldened Mr Kim to ramp up hostility toward South Korea, while raising fears about North Korea’s ability to strengthen its military and sustain its regime with Russian backing.
Mr Kim and Mr Putin raised the stakes in June by reviving a Cold War-era pact, agreeing to support each other in case of an attack. Both countries recently ratified the deal.
Officials in Seoul have indicated that they may consider directly supplying arms if North Korea acquires technology that enhances its ability to make weapons of mass destruction.
Mr Putin has said he can’t rule out giving Mr Kim high-precision weapons in response to Western military assistance for Ukraine.
“Russia has a clear way to retaliate by potentially supplying North Korea with dangerous military technologies, such as ballistic missiles, reconnaissance satellites, and perhaps even nuclear weapons technology,” said Dr Andrei Lankov, a professor who specialises in North Korea at Seoul-based Kookmin University.
North Korean soldiers have already joined Moscow’s side in the fight against Ukraine, the US State Department said on Nov 12, as Russia seeks to reclaim parts of its Kursk region that Ukrainian forces captured during a surprise incursion in August.
Another hurdle for Mr Yoon is the lack of public support for direct arms shipments to Ukraine, especially with his approval rating at a record low of 17 per cent, according to the latest Gallup poll.
Mr Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, which controls the Parliament, urged the government to halt any plans to send arms to Ukraine.
Following Trump’s victory, the war is “very likely to enter a new chapter,” he said. BLOOMBERG
