By Daily Mail (U.S.) | Created at 2025-04-03 13:10:06 | Updated at 2025-04-04 07:30:07
18 hours ago
The odds of a recession in 2025 passed 50 percent for the first time in the hours after Donald Trump announced global tariffs.
On the betting site Polymarket the chances rose from 39 percent as Trump was speaking, to a high of 53 percent afterwards.
Major U.S. trade partners attacked Trump's tariffs onslaught but left the door open to negotiations as markets tumbled.
Trump spared almost no nation on his 'Liberation Day' on Wednesday, hitting friends and foes alike.
He reserved some of the harshest tariffs for major trade partners, including the European Union and China.
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Chances of U.S. recession in 2025 pass 50 percent on Polymarket
On the betting site Polymarket chances of a recession in 2025 passed 50 percent for the first time.
As Donald Trump was announcing his tariff on Wednesday the odds stood at 39 percent.
By the early hours of Thursday morning that had reached a high of 53 percent.
Later on Thursday the chances slipped back below 50 percent.
The forecasting site was closely watched during the 2024 election campaign as odds there began to favor Trump winning.
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