By New York Post (Opinion) | Created at 2025-01-24 23:33:33 | Updated at 2025-01-26 06:39:05
1 day ago
Moscow is in a tizzy: The denizens of the Russian capital did not see this version of President Trump coming for Mad Vlad.
Prior to Trump’s inauguration, Russia’s gilded oligarchs and apparatchiki were confident the 47th president of the United States was going to serve Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin on a silver platter.
That was then.
This is now — and the man from Mar-a-Lago has Moscow panicking.
Instead of giving Putin the golden keys to the Ukrainian kingdom, Trump issued an ultimatum to the Kremlin: Cut a deal to end the war or, as he posted Wednesday on Truth Social, “It is only going to get worse [for Russia].”
Putin’s state-sanctioned talking heads were at a loss.
“[Trump] can’t talk to Russia this way,” Andrey Gurulyov, a member of the Russian Duma and a regular guest on Russia-1, whimpered hours later to host Vladimir Solovyov on Russia’s most popular TV talk show.
“It’s just so rude!” Gurulyov whinged. “How is [Trump] talking to us? Who does he think he is talking to?”
Predictably, if not on cue, Solovyov — who is essentially Putin’s unofficial mouthpiece — suggested nuking London to get Trump’s attention.
Such saber-rattling is not going to work.
Trump is not a man who backs down in the face of a threat.
His defiance after the assassination attempt is proof enough.
Yet beyond grit, Trump also knows he holds the winning cards.
He made that crystal clear on his first day back in office, as he talked with reporters while signing a stack of executive orders in the Oval Office.
Trump’s assessment of Putin’s negotiating position was brutal.
“[Putin] is not doing so well,” he said, noting that losing “almost 1 million soldiers” was “no way to run a country.”
And the clock is ticking. Trump just gave retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, the newly appointed White House envoy to Ukraine and Russia, a 100-day deadline to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.
No more of Biden’s “as long as it takes” weakness.
Trump is determined to end the war on his terms, one way or the other.
It could come via trilateral negotiations, or by delivering a decisive one-two punch to bloody Putin both militarily and economically.
Reaching the former will likely first require the latter.
While Putin knows he is losing, he cannot or will not publicly admit it.
If so, then Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, has signaled what is militarily to come.
This month, Waltz warned on ABC News’ “This Week” that Trump was prepared to lift Biden’s restrictions on supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine, to “force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.”
Doing so would allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to interdict Russian forces before they reach the frontlines in the Kursk Oblast and the Donbas — potentially reversing the Kremlin’s marginal territorial gains there, isolating Putin’s troops and enabling Ukraine to expel the invaders.
Trump has also made it clear he will impose “high levels” of economic tariffs and sanctions on Russia — and on Wednesday, in a very Reaganesque move, he publicly called on NATO member-states to increase defense spending from 2% of GDP to 5%.
Simply put, Trump is utilizing Cold War tactics, expressing American willingness to outfight and outspend Putin.
Russia is highly vulnerable to both.
Moscow is increasingly reliant on its Axis of Evil partners — especially North Korea’s troops and munitions — and its economy is in shambles.
Inflation is nearing 10% and interest rates are now a whopping 21%.
Domestic pressure to end the war is growing over fears the Russian economy is imploding — and Putin is worried this narrative is taking hold.
In response, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, “The Kremlin has launched an information operation” — read, a propaganda push — “that seeks to create the false impression that the Russian economy is performing well.”
Putin is nowhere near capitulation.
He still believes he can outlast the West — and Trump as well.
Ditto the Russian talking heads.
“We have to win,” Gurulyov glumly told Sokolov as he ended his Russia-1 appearance.
But with Trump at the helm, Biden’s predictable weakness is gone — and Putin’s time is running out.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army military intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
