Trump voters could be key to flipping Pennsylvania Senate for Dave McCormick

If businessman Dave McCormick wants to remove Democrat Bob Casey from the Senate, he’s going to have to find a way to convert a stubborn remnant of Donald Trump voters.

That’s a big takeaway from fresh polling of Pennsylvania voters, which shows the 12% of people who say they’re going to vote for the Republican atop the ticket but are undecided in the Senate race could be crucial for GOP hopes to flip the seat.

This isn’t an issue of splitting the ticket. There aren’t many Trump-Casey or Harris-McCormick voters.

It’s more a matter of avoiding undervoting down-ballot for the GOP side.

Per the Monmouth University survey of 654 registered voters conducted Sept. 19 to Sept. 23, 84% of Trump backers claim they will definitely or probably vote for McCormick, while 3% will vote for Casey. Among Harris supporters, 87% say they back Casey and just 5% support McCormick; 7% aren’t yet backing Casey.

Dave McCormick (right) at a campaign event Monday with Donald Trump, whose voters aren’t all yet on board with the Senate candidate. AP

This is a distinction with a difference in a race as tight as this one looks to be. Casey leads 44% to 40% among registered voters. 

But among the most proven performers, those Pennsylvanians who voted in the 2020 election, McCormick leads 44% to 43%. That result mirrors the presidential race, which sees Harris up 2 among registered voters but down by 1 point among people who voted in 2020. And all this illustrates the narrative of the campaign.

“The McCormick campaign’s attack strategy has been to tie Casey to Harris. That may be why we don’t see a lot of daylight between voter preferences in the senate and presidential races,” said Patrick Murray, Monmouth polling-operation director, contextualizing the results.

Indeed, the clash in the Keystone State falls under well-established partisan parameters.

Registered voters see Casey as marginally more aligned with the state’s political values, 44% to 41%. Voters think both candidates are equally able to “handle economic growth.” McCormick is trusted more on the issue of immigration, while Casey has the edge with people most concerned with reproductive rights.

Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is locked in a tight race for re-election. AFP via Getty Images

“The question is not which issue will win over undecided voters, but which issue will motivate more voters on your side to cast a ballot,” said Murray.