The outspoken Republican was elected by a country deeply at odds over immigration, abortion and foreign policy, and one still feeling the pinch after the biggest surge of inflation in four decades. Trump also helped his party recapture the Senate, underscoring his ability to seize on voter angst.
“We just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America,” Trump declared in the early hours of Wednesday at his election party in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Domestically, the result gives his party the upper hand in next year’s battle to rewrite the tax code, and four years to reshape the federal judiciary. Trump has pledged dramatic action upon returning to office, from a sweeping immigration crackdown to a regulatory rollback, as well as steep cuts to federal spending, a purge of civil servants, and a vow to prosecute political enemies.
Internationally, Trump’s return could call US security commitments into question — especially to Ukraine, as it fends off Russia’s invasion. The GOP leader also vowed to ramp up the trade contest with China, and slap tariffs on other countries too — moves that could upend global trade.
Markets reacted strongly. S&P 500 futures climbed, 10-year yields rose and Bitcoin spiked as they digested Trump’s victory.
Lurch to the right
Trump clinched his victory as voters across the country lurched to the right, enabling him to capture key battleground states including Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Exit polls indicated that despite Harris focusing heavily on turning out female voters – hoping frustration in the aftermath of the Supreme Court overturning federal abortion rights protections would help expand her advantage – she was unable to improve on Biden’s showing with women. Trump, who devoted significant resources to targeting young and minority men, posted significant gains with Black and Hispanic men compared to four years prior.
The election was driven in large part by post-pandemic frustration with decades-high inflation, a surge of migrants at the southern border and growing cultural divides.
Trump’s White House comeback represents a calamity for Democrats, who rallied quickly around Harris only to again fail to prevent a man they have cast as an existential threat to democracy itself from returning to office.
The first woman to serve as vice-president, Harris campaigned for just 107 days after Biden turned the contest upside down by dropping out and endorsing her.
In rejecting the 60-year old Harris, voters opted against a generational shift and a candidate seeking to be the first female president.
Harris, who promised a peaceful transfer of power Wednesday in a defiant concession speech that urged supporters to "keep fighting" for their ideas, would have also been the first Black and Asian American woman to lead the United States.
Economy dominant
The election hinged on the economy, a dominant issue and one where voters said they favoured Trump over Harris. Us citizens experienced the highest inflation since the 1980s during the Biden administration in the pandemic’s aftermath, overshadowing the economic rebound and low unemployment rates touted by the Harris campaign.
Polls found voter nostalgia for Trump’s first term, before Covid hit, when incomes for the typical US household rose much faster than they did under Biden.
Harris, however, sought to highlight darker moments of that era, including the attempted insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and warnings from his former aides about anti-democratic impulses. In the final days before the election, Trump’s former chief-of-staff John Kelly said the Republican nominee had made admiring comments about Adolf Hitler.
In vice president-elect JD Vance, 40, Trump has a fellow populist who has positioned himself as a potential heir to the “Make America Great Again” movement.
Trump now confronts governing a country deeply at odds with itself – and weighing how to prioritise his promises. He has vowed to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and, if necessary, deploy the military domestically.
Now that conservative jurists he placed on the Supreme Court have bestowed presidents with immunity for official actions, Trump will return to the White House less constrained by law and with institutional knowledge gained from his first term.
Comeback kid
In less than four years, Trump managed an astounding political recovery that seemed unlikely when he left office on January 20, 2021, skipping Biden’s inauguration and under a cloud over the attack on the Capitol. Grover Cleveland is the only other US president to have lost a re-election bid and come back to win another non-consecutive term.
The former reality TV star has only strengthened his hold on Republicans despite facing four indictments across federal and state courts over alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election result, his retention of classified documents and hush-money payments to a porn star. A New York City jury in the latter case found him guilty on 34 felony counts – a first for a former president.
Trump, though, cast himself as a political martyr — including fundraising off a mugshot from Georgia — and in the process supercharged his campaign as Republicans rallied behind him.
The defining moment of his campaign came at a July rally, when his ear was grazed by a would-be assassin’s bullet and the bloodied candidate raised his fist in defiance, delivering an iconic image that energised his base.
The shooting further damaged Biden’s hopes of continuing his campaign, already badly hit by his disastrous performance in a June presidential debate that seemed to validate longstanding questions about his age and acuity.
The 81-year-old had sought to salvage his legacy by stepping aside and backing Harris, who enjoyed early momentum as Democrats embraced their new nominee.
But even though Harris held a massive financial advantage in the final stretch, Trump managed to woo new contributors from Silicon Valley and mega-donors such as billionaire Elon Musk, who also used his X platform to back the Republican.
While his economic pitch helped him win, economists warn Trump’s plans to renew expiring tax cuts and offer a myriad of other breaks — in addition to his proposed tariffs — threaten more inflation and to drive up the national debt.
His ascension may also upend global alliances. Trump has expressed scepticism of the European Union and NATO, questioned US support for Ukraine and suggested Taiwan should pay for protection.
His return to power is also likely to embolden right-wing allies such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, while striking alarm in other foreign capitals, such as Kyiv as the Ukraine-Russia war drags on.
– TIMES/BLOOMBERG
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