By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-18 13:25:03 | Updated at 2026-06-20 19:00:17
2 days ago
Both beaten in their opening 2026 FIFA World Cup fixture, Group D’s bottom two face a crucial clash in San Francisco. We look ahead to Friday’s game with our Türkiye vs Paraguay prediction and preview.
Türkiye vs Paraguay: The Key Insights
- Though they failed to produce on Matchday 1, Türkiye have a 49.4% chance of winning their second group game against Paraguay, according to the Opta Supercomputer.
- With just a 23.7% chance of victory, Paraguay aren’t expected to end their four-match winless streak at the World Cup.
- Türkiye took 30 shots in their opener, the most by any team without scoring in a World Cup match since 2006 (Portugal vs England, 31) and most without extra-time since Uruguay vs Sweden in 1974 (30).
Already facing the prospect of early elimination, neither Türkiye nor Paraguay can afford to falter when they meet in San Francisco on Friday.
While the Paraguayans were thumped 4-1 by the United States, Türkiye surprisingly lost 2-0 to Australia, failing to score for just the second time in 11 World Cup matches.
It wasn’t for want of trying. Vincenzo Montella’s side made 71 midfield line-breaking passes, the most of any team at a World Cup since 2010; they also racked up 30 shots, including eight from Real Madrid’s Arda Güler.
Keeping them at bay was Australia rookie Patrick Beach, who made eight saves in the game. That was the most of any goalkeeper on their World Cup debut since Türkiye legend Rüstü Reçber produced nine against Brazil in 2002.
It was Türkiye’s first defeat since losing 6-0 to Spain in UEFA qualifying last year, ending an impressive eight-match unbeaten streak across all competitions (W7 D1).
Yet, there’s reason to believe they can bounce straight back – they’ve not lost consecutive games since March 2024.
In competitive games that last happened five years ago, when they left UEFA Euro 2020 with three straight defeats – a reminder of Türkiye’s troubled history on the big stage.
While Turkish teams have now lost nine of their last 13 matches at major tournaments, Paraguay have failed to win any of their last four at the World Cup, following a mauling by one of the 2026 co-hosts.
Gustavo Alfaro’s side arrived in North America with a reputation for solidity, as they didn’t concede more than twice in any of 18 CONEMBOL qualifiers, including landmark wins over Argentina and Brazil.
However, against the United States, La Albirroja were already 3-0 behind at half-time, doubling the number of first-half goals they’d conceded across their previous 16 World Cup fixtures. They also suffered 16 high turnovers – their most on record since 1966.
In short, Paraguay were outclassed.
Now, they must avoid losing their first two games for just the second time; that last happened in 2006, when they were beaten by England and Sweden before going out at the group stage.
With just the top two guaranteed to go through, the South American side ideally need maximum points versus Türkiye; however, they’ve won only two of their last 14 World Cup matches against European opponents (D5 L7).
If Paraguay are to prevail, Julio Enciso could be integral, having just become his country’s youngest contributor to a World Cup goal since 1966, behind Roque Santa Cruz (20 years old in 2002).
The 22-year-old may be a diminutive figure – fellow forwards Miguel Almirón and Antonio Sanabria are no giants either – but his team are not afraid to take the direct route: goalkeeper Orlando Gill made more passes into the final third against the US than anyone else (eight).
It should be a clash of styles, as Türkiye take a more patient approach, with captain and midfield metronome Hakan Çalhanoglu setting the tempo.
A key man along the left flank, Ferdi Kadioglu made the most final-third passes (59) and created five chances against Australia. Across Euro 2024 and this World Cup so far, he’s created 17 – seven more than any other Turkish player.
Türkiye vs Paraguay Head-to-Head
Türkiye – featuring at their first global finals for 24 years – and Paraguay (16 years) will meet at a World Cup for the very first time.
The nations’ only previous encounter was a goalless friendly in Chile, played in June 1995.
Türkiye vs Paraguay Prediction
The Opta supercomputer produced 25,000 pre-match simulations, and Türkiye came out as winners in 49.4% of the simulations.
Paraguay only prevailed in 23.7%, with a draw rated at 26.9% – given the circumstances, the latter result would suit neither side.
Türkiye vs Paraguay Squads
Türkiye: Mert Günok, Altay Bayindir, Ugurcan Çakir, Zeki Çelik, Merih Demiral, Çaglar Söyüncü, Eren Elmali, Abdülkerim Bardakci, Ozan Kabak, Mert Müldür, Ferdi Kadioglu, Kaan Ayhan, Samet Akaydin, Salih Özcan, Orkun Kökçü, Arda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoglu, Ismail Yüksek, Irfan Can Kahveci, Can Uzun, Kerem Aktürkoglu, Deniz Gül, Kenan Yildiz, Yunus Akgün, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Oguz Aydin.
Paraguay: Roberto Fernández, Orlando Gill, Gastón Olveira, Gustavo Velázquez, Omar Alderete, Juan José Cáceres, Fabián Balbuena, Júnior Alonso, José Canale, Gustavo Gómez, Alexandro Maidana, Diego Gómez, Mauricio, Andrés Cubas, Damián Bobadilla, Alejandro Romero, Julio Enciso, Braian Ojeda, Matías Galarza, Ramón Sosa, Antonio Sanabria, Miguel Almirón, Álex Arce, Gabriel Ávalos, Gustavo Caballero, Isidro Pitta.
Türkiye vs Paraguay Predicted Lineups
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