Tyler Cowen: A Doomsday Scenario for American AI

There’s a good chance you’ve thought a lot about p(doom) recently, whether or not you knew it. It took less than a month for that term, which represents the probability that AI will wipe out humanity, to grow from an airy debate topic among Bay Area insiders into the most urgent question in public life. But there’s an opposite and almost equal question that’s being overlooked: Is American AI doomed?

Democratic Party leaders, including Barack Obama and Kamala Harris, have echoed the leading AI labs by calling for a slowdown, and Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders want to pause or ban development altogether. Meanwhile, the politician with the most sway over the issue, President Donald Trump, is doubling down on pro-AI policies, declaring that whichever country wins the AI race will win everything else besides.

So how is all this going to play out? It seems like a classic case of irresistible force meets immovable object.