UEFA Champions League Match Predictions

With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across 2024-25.

The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all UEFA Champions League matches and season outcomes.

Real Madrid have won the most European Cup/Champions League titles (15), with nine of those coming in the UCL era since 1992. They’ll be looking to add yet another this season following their 2023-24 success in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley Stadium.

Manchester City are likely to be their biggest rivals in the quest for European glory in 2024-25, with Pep Guardiola’s side having won their first title in 2023 versus Internazionale. Fellow Premier League side Arsenal are also highly fancied, but they’re yet to win a UCL title despite this being their 21st season in the competition.

Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.

Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Champions League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest UCL projections.

Matchday 6 Predictions

Tuesday 10 December

Matchday 6 of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League kicks off with two early games on Tuesday, as British sides Celtic and Liverpool travel to Dinamo Zagreb and Girona respectively.

Liverpool are the only team with a 100% record coming into MD 6. They’ve won all five of their league-phase games and top the table with just one goal conceded overall. Arne Slot’s winning run is already the longest by a manager from the start of a spell with an English club in the competition (5).

Girona will hope to end a run of seven successive games without a win by La Liga clubs against Premier League opposition in the UCL (D3 L4); but the Opta supercomputer doesn’t give them much hope. They won just 18.0% of the pre-match simulations, while Liverpool kept up their flawless record 60.7% of the time.

Celtic could really do with an away win from their trip to Zagreb, as they currently sit on eight points after five games and in 20th place in the table. Dinamo sit a point below the Scottish side, with both of their wins in the UCL this season coming away from home (2-0 vs Red Bull Salzburg and 4-1 vs Slovan Bratislava). In fact, among teams to have played 50+ games in the UEFA Champions League, Dinamo Zagreb (68%) and Celtic (57%) are two of the three sides who’ve lost the highest percentage of their games (along with Anderlecht – 58%).

Celtic are the favourites here, winning 41.2% of pre-match sims, and they are one of seven away teams given a higher chance of winning than their hosts in the competition on Tuesday.

Bayern Munich (77.6% vs Shakhtar Donetsk) and Paris Saint-Germain (65.6% at RB Salzburg) are strong favourites to pick up three points on their travels, while PSV (42.4% vs Brest) and Sporting CP (41.7% at Club Brugge) are also favoured as away clubs.

Real Madrid travel to Serie A leaders Atalanta and the supercomputer sees this as one of the tightest games to call on MD 6. The record champions have the slight edge (38.4%) over the home side (36.3%), but Atalanta are unbeaten in the Champions League this season (W3 D2), including victories in each of their last two games. If they avoid defeat here, it would mark their longest ever run without defeat in the competition (six games).

Carlo Ancelotti’s side have lost three of their five matches in the competition this season (W2), including the last two against Milan and Liverpool. If they lose this match, it would be the first time in European Cup/Champions League history that the winners of the previous edition have had a three-game losing streak the following season.

Inter Milan are second in the league phase table after five matchdays but face a tricky away game at Bayer Leverkusen this time out. The Serie A giants have won their last four Champions League games without conceding a goal. The last Italian side to win five games in a row and keep a clean sheet in each was Juventus in the 2012-13 campaign (5).

Despite this, the supercomputer thinks home advantage will be a big factor here. Xabi Alonso’s side won 43.4% of the 10,000 simulations played out before the game, while Inter won 31.2%.

The final match of the night sees Premier League side Aston Villa looking to build upon a strong start to life as a Champions League club as they travel to RB Leipzig.

The same cannot be said of Leipzig this season, who are one of three sides still without a point in the competition after the opening five games. If they lose here, it will be their longest ever losing streak in the competition, and the longest by a German side overall since Bayer Leverkusen in March 2003 (7).

Will they lose again? The supercomputer sees them edge the clash against Villa (38.0%), but with a victory for Unai Emery’s side played out in 36.4% of pre-match simulations and a draw 25.6% of the time, it’s almost too close to call.

Wednesday 11 December

Away sides were favoured for success across most of Tuesday’s matches, but the opposite can be said for Wednesday night’s action.

The Opta supercomputer has labelled the home side as favourites for victory in seven of the nine matches to be played on Wednesday, including both of the early kick-offs in Madrid and Lille.

The prediction that Atlético Madrid will come out on top against Slovan Bratislava will hardly come as a surprise, with the Slovakian side on zero points and with a goal difference of -14 after five games. Diego Simeone’s side won 83.4% of pre-match predictions, which is the highest value across the entire matchday.

Only five teams previously have lost their first six games in the competition, two of which are fellow Slovakian outfits – FC VSS Kosice in 1997-98 and MSK Zilina in 2010-11. The supercomputer suggests that Slovan Bratislava will become the next to suffer this feat.

Ahead of this matchday, Lille are 12th and look in a strong position to at least make the play-off round. Their chances will be even better if they can defeat Sturm Graz at home and back up the supercomputer’s pre-match prediction (58.1%).

Benfica (57.9% versus Bologna), Feyenoord (65.2% vs Sparta Prague), Milan (69.1% against Crvena Zvezda) and Stuttgart (65.1% vs Young Boys) are also backed for success at home on MD 6, along with Arsenal (69.4%) who host Monaco at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday night.

It’s a crucial game with both sides on 10 points and next to each other in the table, but home advantage could be key for the Gunners. Only Barcelona and Bayern Munich (both 7) have won more home games in the Champions League since the start of last season than Arsenal (6), while their six clean sheets is the joint most in that time along with Inter.

Fellow Premier League side Manchester City are having a rough time at the moment, having won just one and lost six of their last nine games in all competitions. They did avoid defeat at the weekend, however, drawing 2-2 in the Premier League at Crystal Palace. Pep Guardiola’s side are tipped for an away win at Juventus in the UCL on Wednesday (47.8%), which would feel like a shock in the current climate.

Barcelona travel to Borussia Dortmund where an away win is also on the cards. This match will see Robert Lewandowski face his former club, having reached 100 goals in the Champions League on MD 5.

Both sides have done well across the opening five matchdays, with BVB winning four of their five games to secure their best UCL start since 2016-17, while Barcelona are looking to win five consecutive Champions League matches for the first time since winning their first five games in the 2020-21 campaign.

Barcelona won 43.3% of the pre-match simulations by the supercomputer, but with Borussia Dortmund winning 32.4% of the time themselves, it promises to be an intriguing encounter in Germany.

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