By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-18 12:11:55 | Updated at 2026-09-19 09:15:28
1 day ago
Who will win the UEFA Women’s Champions League in 2026-27? Will Barcelona retain their crown? Here, we detail how the Opta supercomputer sees this season playing out.
The UEFA Women’s Champions League is back with its 18-team league-phase format for the 2026-27 season, and Matchday 1 kicks off on Tuesday.
Each team will play six games in the league phase, with the top four teams at the end securing direct qualification to the quarter-finals, while the teams ranked 5th to 12th will compete in a knockout play-off to book their place in the last eight.
Barcelona were crowned champions for the fourth time in their history after thrashing OL Lyonnes 4-0 in the final last season. Ewa Pajor and Salma Paralluelo both scored twice in the second half to secure the title.
But a lot has happened since then.
In a summer of major moves, two-time Ballon d’Or winner Alexia Putellas departed Barcelona for the WSL, while Salma Paralluelo made the switch to Lyon. Arsenal and Lyon have both strengthened their already potent attacks, Real Madrid continue to build around an exciting young core, and Chelsea, Bayern Munich and Manchester City will all be firmly in the hunt for silverware this season.
So, which side has got the Opta supercomputer’s backing for European glory?
UWCL 2026-27 Predictions
- Barcelona are favourites to be crowned as the champions again in 2026-27, with 41.2% of the simulations ending in Catalan glory.
- The likeliest threat to Barcelona’s claim to the throne is Jose Barcala’s Bayern Munich, who won it in 17.3% of simulations.
- Chelsea are the only other team given more than a 10% chance of lifting the UWCL trophy (13.7%), while Man City sit just behind on 9.1%, having returned to the competition after missing out last season.
- Last year’s runners-up OL Lyonnes are fifth favourites, given a 8.5% chance of winning a record-extending ninth title.
The Favourites
Barcelona come into another season as the favourites to win the competition and equal their men’s team’s tally of five European titles. The Spanish champions have featured in all the UWCL finals this decade, being crowned champions four times.
Despite losing some long serving members of the squad this summer, Pere Romeu’s side came out winners in 41.2% of the supercomputer’s simulations. The Blaugranas are the side to beat in Europe and have lost just three out of 38 games in the UWCL since the start of 2023, with all three losses coming against English sides (1-0 vs Arsenal on 24 May 2025, 2-0 vs Man City on 10 October 2024 and 1-0 vs Chelsea on 20 April 2024).
After losing out to eventual champions Barcelona in the semi-finals of the last edition, Bayern Munich are the second most likely side to win the competition this season with Opta’s supercomputer. José Barcala’s winning machine reached the final in 34.8% of the simulations and were crowned champions in 17.3% of them.
In fact, Bayern’s only two losses in all competitions last season came at the hands of Barcelona (7-1 in October and 4-2 in May). Although Georgia Stanway switched the Bavarians for Arsenal this summer, Barcala should feel confident in their attack of Klara Bühl, Pernille Harder, Edna Imade and others.
Bayern and Barça are set to face each other again in the final match of the league phase this season. Bayern will hope to do better this time.
The Contenders
According to the supercomputer, all English teams and OL Lyonnes are expected to secure a place in the quarter-finals of the UWCL this year, alongside the title contenders of course.
Sonia Bompastor’s Chelsea (94.0%) have been given the second highest chance of reaching the last eight of the competition, behind Barcelona. This is largely down to their favourable draw as the Blues have the lowest average fixture difficulty rating of all teams in the league phase this year.
Surprisingly, the Opta supercomputer is not too bullish on the prospects of eight-time champions and last year’s runners-up OL Lyonnes, or the 2024-25 champions Arsenal. Those two teams came out on top in only 8.7% and 7.0% of the simulations, respectively.
Jonatan Giráldez’s side reached the final in 20.6% of simulations, behind Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea and Man City. Despite adding more attacking firepower to the side with the signings of Caroline Weir and Paralluelo, Lyon lack balance in the midfield following Lindsey Heaps’ departure this summer to Denver Summit FC.
The side struggled to maintain the intensity and compactness throughout the 90 minutes in last season’s final against Barcelona and could yet fall short in that regard this season.
Renee Slegers’ Arsenal have had their own issues in front of goal, unable to maximise their goalscoring opportunities, a glimpse of what has continuously haunted the Gunners when it comes to the fine margins.
Their recent goalless draw against Crystal Palace was another in a long list of games where they failed to convert their chances. According to the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal reached the final on just 17.8% of the simulations.
English champions Manchester City reached the semi-final stage in 50.1% of the simulations on their return to the competition. Andree Jeglertz’s side haven’t featured in the final four since the 2017-18 season, when they were beaten by the eventual champions Lyon thanks to a goal by Lucy Bronze.
Spearheaded by Khadija Shaw, City will hope to add a European star to their domestic triumphs, building on their momentum. The side has talented players across all positions but potentially lacks the depth needed to compete three times a week.
Best of the Rest
Outside the top six, Real Madrid have the highest probability of making the quarter-finals of the UWCL this season (49.6%). Las Blancas have lost their leading goalscorer and assist provider in the club’s history, Caroline Weir, but have brought in the prodigious talent of Felicia Schroder to lead the attack alongside Linda Caicedo.
The young Swede has started well enough, involved in three of Real Madrid’s four goals in the qualifiers against Ajax and scored a brace against Atlético Madrid on the opening matchday of Liga F, though she was later shown a red card.
While they face City and Bayern during the league phase, Pau Quesada’s side should get positive results against the rest of the opponents.
Benfica and Hacken are a left-field shout to reach the quarters this season, with the latter given a 47.2% chance of qualifying for the final eight by the Opta supercomputer. Benfica have the fourth-lowest average fixture difficulty rating for the league phase and could cause some upsets along the way with a good squad.
Of the Italian sides, Juventus have the best shot of reaching the quarter-finals this season after being handed a favourable draw with the lowest average fixture difficulty rating. Debutants Inter have been handed a much more difficult draw, facing Lyon, Real Madrid, Man City and Arsenal in their six league phase games, but after knocking Wolfsburg out from a two-goal deficit in qualifying, they should feel confident of upsetting the odds.
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