By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-03-17 17:35:04 | Updated at 2025-03-18 00:09:36
6 hours ago
The UEFA Women’s Champions League returns this week after a three-month break. We look ahead to the four quarter-final ties, with some guidance from the Opta supercomputer on who could secure first-leg advantages.
This week marks the return of the UEFA Women’s Champions League, with some tantalising quarter-final clashes across Europe.
England are the first nation to have three teams in the last eight of the UWCL in a single season, with Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City all still in the hunt for continental glory.
But those Women’s Super League sides face some fierce competition, with Bayern Munich, Lyon, Real Madrid, Wolfsburg and holders Barcelona completing a stellar lineup.
Chelsea are on the brink of history as they prepare to face Man City in the first leg of their tie on Wednesday. The Blues are just one game away from setting the longest ever unbeaten streak by a WSL team across all competitions, a run that already stands at a staggering 31 matches.
Sonia Bompastor’s reputation in this tournament is unrivalled, as she is the only person to win it both as a manager and player, but it remains a competition Chelsea are yet to win.
Bompastor is having an incredible maiden season, though, and if any manager is to end Chelsea’s wait for European glory, it will surely be her.
With four of the eight sides still involved being former champions, the calibre of teams couldn’t get much better. So, let’s run through all the key data ahead of this week’s ties and review who will come out on top according to the Opta supercomputer.
Real Madrid vs Arsenal
This will be the first competitive meeting ever between Real Madrid and Arsenal, with the Spanish giants at home for Tuesday’s first leg.
Both teams have specific continental records they will be keen to address. For Las Blancas, they are winless in six previous meetings with English sides in the UWCL, all of which have come against Chelsea (D2 L4).
However, the Gunners have failed to win their last three away games in the knockout stage of the competition (D1 L2), not winning a road knockout clash since the 2019-20 season when they defeated Slavia Prague 5-2 in the round of 16.
Arsenal are regulars in the latter stages of European competition, though. The Gunners and Lyon are in the last eight for a joint-record 16th time and Arsenal have won each of their last five games in the UWCL, their joint-longest winning streak (also achieved from September 2012-March 2013).
They have found their form under Renee Slegers, banishing the memory of their 5-2 loss to Bayern on matchday one, when Jonas Eidevall was still in charge.
Madrid will pose a big threat with only Barcelona (26) scoring more goals than they did (20) in this season’s UWCL group stage. Signe Bruun has been directly involved in more goals (8) than any other player this season, having scored five goals and added three assists. That’s already the most goal involvements in a single edition of the competition recorded by a Madrid player.
The Gunners’ biggest threat will likely be Mariona Caldentey. Only Lyon’s Lindsey Heaps (162) has completed more passes in the final third of the pitch than Arsenal’s Spanish star (160) in this season’s competition. She’s also found the net with 50% of her shots (4/8), the most clinical of any player with at least three goals to their name.
The Opta supercomputer predicts this match will go in favour of the Gunners. Arsenal built a first-leg lead in 52.0% of our simulations, with the draw a worthy candidate at 23.1% and Madrid’s win probability at 24.9%.
Bayern Munich vs Lyon
Lyon have won their last six UWCL knockout stage ties with German opposition (including three finals) since they were eliminated in the round of 16 in 2013-14 by 1. FFC Turbine Potsdam.
The most successful club in the competition’s history, Lyon will feel confident going into this tie. After all, they trailed for a total of just three minutes in this season’s group stage, conceding only one goal across their six games.
Similarly, the French giants have lost just one of their last 43 away games in the knockout stages of the competition (W35 D7).
Bayern, on the other hand, have lost two of their three meetings with Lyon in this competition, though they did win their most recent one, 1-0 at home in the 2021-22 group stage.
While they may be underdogs, Bayern do have some excellent attackers to call on, particularly Pernille Harder. She has scored 10 goals across her last six quarter-final appearances in this competition, evidence of her effectiveness on the big stage.
Indeed, Harder and Lyon’s Ada Hegerberg have both netted the most knockout stage goals in the history of the Women’s Champions League (13).
One area Bayern will need to be particularly attentive if they are to progress from this tie is set-pieces. Lyon have scored nine goals from corners in this season’s competition, more than any other team.
Lyon came out on top in 45.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s data-led simulations for this match. Bayern, who have yet to win the Women’s Champions League, have a 29.6% chance of taking an advantage into the second leg.
Wolfsburg vs Barcelona
This will be the first meeting between Wolfsburg and Barcelona in the UWCL since the 2022-23 final, when Barca came from 2-0 down at half-time to win 3-2 in Eindhoven.
Wolfsburg have progressed from three of their last four quarter-final ties in the UCWL, seeing off Paris Saint-Germain most recently in 2022-23. In fact, only Lyon (13 times) have reached the semi-finals of the competition more often than the Die Wolfinnen (8).
Conversely, Barcelona have progressed from each of their last 16 two-legged knockout ties in the competition since they were eliminated by Lyon in the 2017-18 quarter-finals. Only Lyon (runs of 17 and 20) have ever put longer such streaks together in the competition’s history.
Wolfsburg (152) and Barcelona (147) had more shots than every other team in this season’s group stage, so expect plenty of goalmouth action with some stellar attackers on show.
Wolfsburg’s Alexandra Popp has had more attempts (26) than any other player in the Champions League this term, scoring four goals. And let’s not forget Ballon d’Or winner Aitana Bonmati, who has been directly involved in 28 goals in 28 UWCL matches over the last three seasons (13 goals, 15 assists).
Barca are aiming to equal Lyon’s record of reaching five straight finals (between 2016 and 2020). They are also striving to become the second club after Lyon to win three titles in a row.
So how does the Opta supercomputer see this one playing out?
You might think this would be a close call, but it actually gives Barcelona the biggest chance of winning of any team across the four first-leg games this week (58.7%). The draw, at 21.2%, is deemed slightly more likely than a Wolfsburg victory (20.1%).
Manchester City vs Chelsea
Manchester City versus Chelsea will be just the second UWCL tie between two English sides after Birmingham City eliminated Arsenal in the 2013-14 quarter-finals.
This meeting on Wednesday is the second of four clashes between these WSL rivals in the space of 12 days, across three competitions.
Chelsea won the first of those at the weekend, securing the English League Cup title with a 2-1 victory. A late own goal from Yui Hasegawa was enough to see Bompastor clinch her first piece of silverware as the London club’s manager.
Recent history doesn’t provide much encouragement for City fans either, as they have won just one of their last eight home games against Chelsea in all competitions (D3, L4), a 2-0 victory in the WSL in March 2023. The most recent meeting between the pair in front of City’s fans saw the Blues win 1-0 in last season’s League Cup semi-final.
Chelsea have spent more time in a leading position in the UWCL this season than any other team (474 minutes), however. The Blues also have the best 100% progression rate at the quarter-final stage of the competition (5/5), reaching the semi-finals in the last two campaigns.
Keira Walsh will go up against her former club, having slotted in seamlessly at Chelsea since her January move from Barcelona. Only two midfielders have a better pass accuracy in the UWCL this season than Walsh (93.0%) and the England international has ended on the losing side in just two of her last 22 appearances in the competition (W18 D2).
Aoba Fujino, who scored City’s goal in the League Cup final defeat, is certainly a player Chelsea have to keep a close eye on. She has scored or assisted five of City’s last nine Champions League goals (two goals, three assists), while she’s also struck the woodwork more times than any other player this season (three).
The Opta supercomputer is forecasting a tightly contested encounter, with this game the likeliest to finish level among the four quarter-final matches this week (25.2%).
Chelsea, with a record-setting 32nd unbeaten game firmly in their sights, are given a 43.6% chance of securing the win they need to break the record. As things stand, their current run of 31 competitive games without a defeat is level with their own streak set back in September 2020.
The quadruple is on for Chelsea, who are comfortably leading the WSL table and have already secured one trophy, but this double-header – which comes either side of a final league meeting of 2024-25 with City – will be a real test.
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