By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-11 12:41:44 | Updated at 2026-06-14 05:38:40
2 days ago
Before the US commence their FIFA World Cup campaign, we look ahead to Saturday’s Group D clash with our United States vs Paraguay prediction and preview.
United States vs Paraguay: The Key Insights
- Predicting victory for the co-hosts, the Opta supercomputer gives the United States a 39.8% chance of winning their opener.
- With a 33.6% probability of success, Paraguay aren’t fancied to reverse the result from one previous World Cup meeting – a 3-0 win for USA.
- That encounter came at the inaugural finals in 1930, when Bert Patenaude scored the first World Cup hat-trick – it’s still the USA’s joint-largest win at the tournament.
Aiming to seize some early momentum, Group D rivals Paraguay and the United States will meet in Los Angeles on Saturday.
For the first time, three countries are co-hosting a World Cup, and the States join neighbouring Mexico and Canada in hoping to harness proud home support.
The Stars and Stripes have just a 1.2% chance of actually lifting the trophy according to Opta’s supercomputer, but that doesn’t mean they can’t dream.
First, Mauricio Pochettino’s side must negotiate a tricky group, in which games against Australia (June 19, Seattle) and Türkiye (June 25, Los Angeles) also await.
One final tune-up before the big show began ended in defeat for the US, who were beaten 2-1 by Germany in Chicago last week despite Antonee Robinson‘s thunderous equaliser.
With that, nearly two years of planning, tweaking and testing under Pochettino was complete, and his 26-man squad flew to California. This will be the ex-Tottenham manager’s first World Cup as a coach, and the pressure to produce a deep run is immense.
The USA’s best finish yet came back in 1930, when they beat Paraguay en route to claiming bronze – that’s still the only time a CONCACAF nation has finished inside the top four. In the modern era, their furthest run was to the quarter-finals in 2002.
Now set for a second shot as hosts, they’ll be keen to surpass their last-16 appearance on home turf 32 years ago.
That might not be fanciful: the States have reached the knockout stage in their last three participations (2010, 2014, 2022) and they’ve lost just one of their last nine group matches (W3 D5). They also play each Group D game on America’s west coast, though they’ve lost two previous matches at the Los Angeles Stadium.
While the hosts didn’t have to qualify, Paraguay finished sixth in South America, claiming the final automatic place available.
Preferring a cautious approach, they had the lowest goal difference (+4) and average possession (37.3%) among teams that progressed; they also scored the highest proportion of goals from set-pieces (36%).
That teed up a ninth World Cup appearance, but the first since 2010, where La Albirroja reached the quarter-finals – their best ever result.
They were steered through by Gustavo Alfaro who, alongside Pochettino, is one of six Argentinian coaches at this year’s edition, plus the third to lead Paraguay at a World Cup.
Alfaro’s highlight was a 2-1 victory over Argentina; however, his team were then beaten 2-1 by the United States in a friendly last November.
Before facing down the Stars and Stripes in more serious circumstances, Paraguay warmed up with a 4-0 home win over Nicaragua – hardly the most testing of pre-tournament opponents.
Paraguay may have won just one of eight World Cup openers (D4 L3), but the US have the competition’s second-lowest win rate among nations with 30+ matches (24%).
Hopes of improving that record rest heavily on Christian Pulisic, who has endured a rough year in Milan but was involved in all three US goals at Qatar 2022 and looked sharp against Germany.
Antonio Sanabria was Paraguay’s top scorer en route to the finals with four goals, though as the most prolific substitute in South American qualifying (three), he might be better off starting on the bench.
United States vs Paraguay Head-to-Head
This will be just the second World Cup meeting, with the United States winning 3-0 in 1930.
The only other competitive contests were at the Copa América: a 3-1 win for Paraguay in 2007, followed by a 1-0 victory for the States nine years later.
In friendlies played this century – including that American home win last November – the US lead 3-1.
United States vs Paraguay Prediction
Following 10,000 pre-match simulations, the Opta supercomputer predicts success for the United States, with a 39.8% chance of victory.
Paraguay prevailed in 33.6% of those simulations, leaving a draw rated at 26.6%.
United States vs Paraguay Squads
United States:
Matt Turner, Matt Freese, Chris Brady, Sergiño Dest, Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, Auston Trusty, Miles Robinson, Tim Ream, Alex Freeman, Mark McKenzie, Joe Scally, Tyler Adams, Giovanni Reyna, Weston McKennie, Christian Pulisic, Brenden Aaronson, Sebastian Berhalter, Cristian Roldan, Malik Tillman, Max Arfsten, Ricardo Pepi, Haji Wright, Folarin Balogun, Timothy Weah, Álex Zendejas.
Paraguay:
Roberto Fernández, Orlando Gill, Gastón Olveira, Gustavo Velázquez, Omar Alderete, Juan José Cáceres, Fabián Balbuena, Júnior Alonso, José Canale, Gustavo Gómez, Alexandro Maidana, Diego Gómez, Mauricio, Andrés Cubas, Damián Bobadilla, Alejandro Romero, Julio Enciso, Braian Ojeda, Matías Galarza, Ramón Sosa, Antonio Sanabria, Miguel Almirón, Álex Arce, Gabriel Ávalos, Gustavo Caballero, Isidro Pitta.
United States vs Paraguay Predicted Lineups
Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
