By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-20 14:18:18 | Updated at 2026-06-20 16:43:44
2 hours ago
Can Bubista’s team produce another shock in Group H at the FIFA World Cup? We look ahead to Sunday’s clash with our Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction and preview.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer expects Uruguay to win this one after they came out on top in 65.2% of pre-match simulations.
- Cape Verde have never faced Uruguay but have suffered defeat in their only two encounters with CONMEBOL opposition.
- Uruguay have lost only one of their last nine group games at the World Cup.
A pair of surprise opening results for Uruguay and Cape Verde, albeit for differing reasons, leaves Group H wide open before they meet in Sunday’s World Cup clash.
Cape Verde held Spain to a shock goalless draw in their debut at FIFA’s top event, despite facing 27 shots from the European champions across almost 100 minutes. Coincidentally, Uruguay also attempted 27 efforts in their tournament opener but were left frustrated by a 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia later on Monday.
Cape Verde will likely sit deep again in Miami against Marcelo Bielsa’s side, who were saved by Maxi Araújo’s 80th-minute equaliser in their first match, given how that blueprint worked against La Roja.
Bubista will have been delighted with how disciplined his side were off the ball. Cape Verde conceded only one foul – the fewest by any team in a World Cup match on record since 1966 – despite Spain having over 74% of possession.
Forty-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha delivered an inspired display for Cape Verde, too. His seven saves was the most by a goalkeeper keeping a clean sheet against Spain in any competition since October 2020, when Ukraine’s Georgiy Bushchan managed eight.
Vozinha was aided by a resilient backline in front of him, led by Pico Lopes. His 11 clearances on MD1 was the most by a debutant in the World Cup for an African team since Tunisia’s Karim Haggui against Saudi Arabia in 2006 (13).
Lopes should be in for another busy outing here, considering Uruguay attempted 34 crosses from open play on MD1 – the most of any team across Groups A to H. It was also their most on record (since 1966) in a World Cup match, but only nine were successful.
Araújo will again be central to any creative exploits. As well as equalising, his five chances created – all from set-pieces – was the most by a Uruguay player in a World Cup game since Diego Forlán managed as many against Mexico in 2010.
Mathías Olivera, playing in this tournament as a centre-back rather than full-back for the first time, also impressed. He made the most line-breaking passes (11), progressive carries (31) and won the most duels (8) for Uruguay on MD1.
However, Bielsa may have been disappointed with Fernando Muslera after the goalkeeper spilled Mohamed Kanno’s tame header, allowing Abdulelah Al Amri to open the scoring for Saudi Arabia.
Should Muslera be trusted again here over Sergio Rochet, he would surpass Edinson Cavani (17) and take the outright record for most Uruguay appearances in World Cup history.
Bielsa may not be panicked by an opening draw either. Uruguay still have a 74.7% chance of qualifying for the round of 32, according to the Opta supercomputer, behind only Spain (96.3%) in this group.
Recent history suggests no cause for concern, too. Uruguay have only lost one of their last nine group games on FIFA’s global stage (W6 D2), a 2-0 defeat to Portugal at Qatar 2022.
Those nine matches have seen just 15 goals scored overall (11 for, 4 against), at an average of 1.7 per game, and Bielsa will know his side need a more clinical performance this time round if they are to take control of their own destiny.
But with all four teams on one point, Cape Verde may be sensing another opportunity to move closer to an unlikely progression. Their chances of featuring in the last 32 have jumped to 48.8% from the 32.9% the Opta supercomputer gave them before a ball was kicked in North America.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Head-to-Head
Sunday will be the first encounter between this pair, and while there is still a clear favourite, Cape Verde’s historic draw with Spain shows anything can happen.
Uruguay will expect to get over the line here, given they are unbeaten in their five World Cup matches against African teams (W3 D2).
Having already faced Ghana (twice), Senegal, South Africa and Egypt, Cape Verde will be the fifth CAF nation Uruguay have met in the competition.
Bubista’s team have lost their only two matches against CONMEBOL sides – they suffered a 1-0 defeat against Ecuador four years ago and a 4-2 loss to Chile in March this year.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see past a win for Uruguay, who claimed all three points in a massive 65.2% of 25,000 pre-match simulations.
Cape Verde are afforded just a 13.8% chance of victory in the same data-led sims, while the draw accounted for 21.0% of scenarios.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Squads
Uruguay: Sergio Rochet, Santiago Mele, Fernando Muslera, José María Giménez, Sebastián Cáceres, Ronald Araujo, Guillermo Varela, Mathías Olivera, Matías Viña, Joaquín Piquerez, Santiago Bueno, Manuel Ugarte, Rodrigo Bentancur, Nicolás de la Cruz, Federico Valverde, Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Facundo Pellistri, Emiliano Martínez, Maxi Araújo, Juan Manuel Sanabria, Rodrigo Zalazar, Darwin Núñez, Agustín Canobbio, Brian Rodríguez, Rodrigo Aguirre, Federico Viñas.
Cape Verde: Vozinha, Márcio Rosa, CJ dos Santos, Stopira, Diney Borges, Pico Lopes, Logan Costa, Sidny Cabral, Steven Moreira, Wagner Pina, Kelvin Pires, Kevin Pina, João Paulo, Jamiro Monteiro, Deroy Duarte, Laros Duarte, Yannick Semedo, Telmo Arcanjo, Jovane Cabral, Gilson Benchimol, Garry Rodrigues, Willy Semedo, Dailon Livramento, Ryan Mendes, Nuno da Costa, Hélio Varela.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Predicted Lineups
Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
