US-Iran truce lifts risk mood as Polymarket pegs 69% odds of zero Fed cuts

By Blockchain News | Created at 2026-06-17 00:13:22 | Updated at 2026-06-17 02:48:09 14 hours ago

US–Iran Interim Peace Deal and Kevin Warsh’s First Fed Decision Keep Polymarket’s 2026 “No Rate Cuts” Bet in the Lead

An interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran and a closely watched Federal Reserve policy decision are setting the tone for risk markets this week, keeping attention on the outlook for monetary easing. On Polymarket’s “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” ladder, the top contract continues to price in a strong chance of no cuts.

Key Takeaways

Polymarket prices a 68.75% chance that the Fed makes 0 rate cuts in 2026 (0 bps), versus 31.25% for the opposite side.
Traders are watching Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC rate decision this week, with the forecast calling for no change in the policy range.
The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, while the latest snapshot shows $35.54 million in traded volume and a 2.35 percentage-point 7-day move in the leading outcome odds.

Crypto markets opened the week focused on an interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran announced on Sunday, a development that traders hope could ease months of geopolitical stress on risk assets. Bitcoin rose to nearly $66,000 on Monday, about 3.5% above Friday’s level, and crypto-linked equities such as Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy (GLXY) gained in pre-market trading. The report flagged lingering caution after an April ceasefire collapsed and another truce was broken last month following U.S. strikes, episodes that coincided with crypto weakness. Attention also turns to Wednesday’s interest-rate decision, described as Kevin Warsh’s first as Federal Reserve chair, with forecasts calling for no change in the current 3.50%–3.75% range. A new dot plot and a shortened week due to the Juneteenth federal holiday were cited as factors that could reduce liquidity, leaving upcoming data and Fed guidance as key inputs for risk sentiment.

Polymarket Fed Cuts Ladder: “0 Cuts” at 68.75% With $35.54M Volume and a 2.35-Point Weekly Odds Move

Polymarket’s ladder is heavily skewed toward minimal easing in 2026, led by “0 (0 bps)” at 68.75% Yes versus 31.25% No, on $35.54 million in cumulative volume. The next rung, “1 (25 bps),” sits at 15.5% Yes / 84.5% No, showing traders assign much lower odds to even a single cut. Farther out, “2 (50 bps)” is priced at 5.65% Yes / 94.35% No and “3 (75 bps)” at 1.85% Yes / 98.15% No, with deep tail strikes such as “4 (100 bps)” at 0.55% Yes / 99.45% No. The spread across rungs implies positioning concentrated in the no-cuts base case, with sharply diminishing conviction as the implied number of cuts rises into 2026.

Traders will watch how pricing shifts across the ladder as liquidity changes around the midweek Fed decision and as the market recalibrates the gap between the 0-cut base case and the 1-cut alternative ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution.

Beyond the Fed: Other High-Interest Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching

Beyond the 2026 cuts ladder, traders are also spreading risk across shorter-dated catalysts and broader macro shocks on Polymarket. In the near term, 93.5% “No change” leads the “Fed Decision in July?” contract, which has drawn $10,137,437 in volume as participants position for the next policy waypoint. Other actively watched markets on the platform span geopolitical flashpoints and growth-inflation crosscurrents that can reprice rates expectations and crypto sentiment in a hurry.

Odds Trend

WindowChange (pp)

24h	+2.4
7d	+2.4

By the Numbers

Platform: Polymarket
Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
Status: Active (open for trading)
Volume: ~$35,541,488

Top strike rungs

StrikeYesNo