US looms large as foreign ministers of Japan, China and South Korea meet

By The Straits Times | Created at 2025-03-22 14:22:10 | Updated at 2025-03-23 12:00:40 22 hours ago

TOKYO – There were no promises that trilateral foreign ministerial talks between China, Japan and South Korea on March 22 would serve as an overture to a leaders’ summit within the year.

Although Japan hopes to host the summit within the first half of 2025, the timeframe was left vague and non-committal, described only as “at the earliest convenient time”. This underscores the challenges of a trilateral framework that began in 2007, intended to be a yearly affair.

Instead, over 19 years, their leaders have only sat down together nine times – most recently in Seoul in May 2024. The 80-minute meeting in Tokyo on March 22 was the 11th gathering of their foreign ministers.

It also involved the first visit to Japan by a Chinese foreign minister since November 2020, coming as bilateral ties are warming.

On March 22, Mr Wang Yi notably raised the point about the three countries cooperating on trade and stable supply chains, and “working together to build an Asian frontier of scientific and technological innovation”.

“We will work towards restarting talks on a trilateral free trade agreement,” he told a joint news conference. “We will adhere to multilateralism and free trade, and promote economic globalisation in a fairer and more inclusive direction.”

This message was pointed: US President Donald Trump’s promised tariffs may have given renewed impetus to revive discussions on the trade pact. China was also intent on protecting the existing multilateral trading order, which Mr Trump blames for causing the US to be unfairly taken advantage of.

Notably, also on March 22, China and Japan held their first high-level ministerial economic dialogue in six years.

Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya stressed that it was in regional and global interests that the three East Asian neighbours, who account for 20 per cent of the world’s population and 25 per cent of the global economy, work together, given their collective geopolitical and economic influence.

“Promoting future-oriented cooperation among our countries, which have great influence and responsibility not only to the region but also for the peace and prosperity of the international community, is extremely important in leading the world from division to cooperation,” he told a joint news conference.

But University of Tokyo expert Shin Kawashima, without entirely ruling out a 2025 summit, told The Straits Times: “Given the situation in the United States, the domestic turmoil in South Korea and the viability of the Japanese government, it seemed like the ministers felt it was impossible to commit to any deadline.”

He said: “Some may say that the meeting outcomes were insufficient, but there is value in meeting and talking face to face.”

This was especially so, given that the US and China are barely talking and US President Donald Trump “does not seem particularly interested in regional frameworks and relationships with allies”, he added.

That Dr Kawashima mentioned the US – the elephant in the room – was significant. The US, which treats China as an adversary, has security alliances with both Japan and South Korea. But Mr Trump has imposed, or threatened to impose, universal tariffs on friends and foes alike.

Dr Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at the Hudson Institute think-tank, noted that Mr Trump’s trade protectionist stance and unpredictability in diplomacy have given China an opening to seek closer ties with Japan and South Korea.

The two US allies also see the economic benefits of growing business ties with China, he said.

Meanwhile, the three countries agreed to strengthen cooperation with South-east Asia, on the basis of Asean centrality and the grouping’s Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP).

Dr Kawashima said this was highly significant, given that the idea of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, long espoused by Japan and the US, has been a point of contention for Beijing.

“They were able to find the greatest common denominator, in emphasising the AOIP as proposed by Asean,” he said, noting the policy’s focus on principles such as openness, a rules-based framework, good governance and respect for sovereignty.

During their meeting, the three ministers agreed to promote mutual understanding, protect livelihoods, and cooperate on resolving common issues affecting all generations, a Japanese readout said. These common issues, as agreed at the May 2024 summit, include climate change, economic cooperation, digital transformation, ageing societies, and disaster relief.

These diverse and non-controversial topics provide common ground for the countries despite the challenges that the trilateral framework has faced over the years – most notably due to differences over history and territorial disputes, as well as geopolitical tensions.

The framework has also often been derailed by domestic political upheavals. The ongoing turmoil with the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol may be an obstacle. His supporters have fanned wild speculation of Chinese interference in its domestic politics. South Korea’s Constitutional Court is expected to deliver its verdict on the impeachment in the coming days.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government may not survive an election year, with his approval sinking to fresh lows over revelations that he gifted vouchers to rookie lawmakers.

There are many irritants in bilateral ties, aside from territorial disputes.

Both Japan and South Korea are aligned with the US on curbing exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China.

The two countries have also taken an increasingly outspoken stance on self-governing Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province to be united, by force if necessary.

As recently as March 7, Mr Wang blamed “unrepentant individuals in Japan” who were “working in the shadows” for Taiwan independence. Japan government officials frequently visit Taiwan, and it was reported on March 21 that retired General Shigeru Iwasaki, the former Chief of Staff of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces, had taken on an advisory role in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan.

Professor Shi Yinhong, an international relations scholar at Renmin University in Beijing, observed that Chinese efforts to improve relations with Japan and South Korea will be largely rhetorical and without major compromises.

He told ST that such compromises will likely not be made – by either side – over issues such as Taiwan, strategic high-technology industries, or territorial disputes.

“Moreover, Japan and South Korea will not break with the US, not even with Trump’s America,” he said.

Furthermore, the deep scars of Japan’s World War II aggression may also come to a boil in 2025, the milestone 80th anniversary year since the war ended. As part of his upcoming visit to Japan, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth will likely attend a March 29 war memorial on Iwo Jima – where one of the bloodiest battles of WWII was fought in the closing days of the war – together with Mr Ishiba.

Mr Wang, in an indirect rebuke of Japan, said: “This is an important year to squarely look back on history, sincerely reflect, and draw useful lessons, to promote future-oriented cooperation.”

What this means is that Japan will face a delicate balancing act, experts said.

“It will be necessary for Japan to reaffirm statements expressing remorse for its colonial rule and aggression. At the same time, efforts to promote reconciliation are necessary, such as conducting joint historical research and youth exchanges,” Dr Kawashima said.

While he noted that WWII history is perceived differently among the countries, he added that Japan must “prevent historical issues from causing excessive emotions”.

But Dr Nagao believed that the still-raw emotions made it ripe for China to “exploit” the situation by accusing Japan of remilitarisation, and in turn argue that it needs to strengthen its own defences further as deterrence.

“Japan should be as neutral as possible,” he said. “If it concedes too much, there will be domestic frustrations among hawkish conservatives. Yet if it does too little, it will cause another diplomatic problem among the countries.”