Vatican analyst: Trump’s Catholic support and reactions in Rome and Kyiv

CV NEWS FEED // Italian Vatican analyst Sandro Magister, writing on his blog Settimo Cielo, analyzed the 2024 U.S. presidential election, highlighting a significant shift in the Catholic vote. 

Magister noted that Donald Trump received 56% of the Catholic vote, compared to Kamala Harris’s 41%, marking a dramatic reversal from 2020, when Joe Biden, a Catholic, won 52%. According to Magister, the religious factor played a diminished role this year due to the growing secularization of American society. 

Even the issue of abortion, he wrote, which the U.S. bishops had called a “preeminent priority,” did not sway voters as strongly as in past elections. Magister observed that Trump’s stance on abortion, which was, in some respects, “pro-choice,” coincided with the success of more permissive abortion referendums in states, further signaling a cultural shift. 

Magister drew attention to a recent interview for the podcast of Daniele Rielli, in which sociologist Luca Ricolfi attributed Trump’s victory in part to growing public opposition to “woke” ideology. 

In the interview, Ricolfi pointed out four key factors on this particular issue: warnings from Hillary Clinton about the political risks of overemphasizing progressive causes, Harris’ choice of a running mate known for supporting gender-affirming care, her refusal to distance herself from such policies despite feminist critiques, and the retreat of corporate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives under public scrutiny.

Harris’ campaign, Magister added, neglected Catholic voters, highlighted by her decision to skip the Al Smith Dinner, a long-standing charity event organized by the Archdiocese of New York. Cardinal Timothy Dolan remarked that this was the first absence by a major candidate in four decades, likening it to Walter Mondale’s absence in 1984, a campaign that ended in one of the largest electoral defeats in U.S. history.

Magister also explored Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as his Catholic running mate, describing it as a signal of the rise of a new Catholic “right.” Vance, famous for his memoir Hillbilly Elegy, embodied values shaped by a working-class background and influences such as Peter Thiel and Patrick Deneen. 

Deneen, a prominent critic of liberalism, authored Why Liberalism Failed, a widely discussed book that former President Barack Obama described as essential reading. According to Magister, this emerging Catholic “postliberal” movement represented a hybrid of “left-wing social democracy and right-wing personal uplift,” a departure from the Catholic neoconservatism of figures like Michael Novak and George Weigel.

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Magister noted some of the reactions to Trump’s victory. In Rome, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, expressed hopes that Trump’s presidency would bring “wisdom” and foster peace. On the other hand, Cardinal Parolin’s comments underscored a contrast with Trump’s assertive foreign policy, particularly toward China. The Cardinal reaffirmed the Vatican’s commitment to dialogue, referencing earlier disputes, such as when Trump’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized the Vatican’s agreement with China on bishop appointments.

Magister further examined Trump’s potential impact on Ukraine. Trump had indicated his desire to resolve the conflict quickly, even at the cost of favoring Vladimir Putin. Vance, a vocal critic of Ukraine’s law banning religious organizations linked to Russia, had called for an end to U.S. aid to Kyiv. The controversial law, set to take effect in May 2025, targeted the Ukrainian Orthodox Church historically aligned with Moscow. 

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According to Magister, observers like Peter Anderson have speculated that future peace negotiations could include compromises on the Church’s status, with Ukraine potentially easing enforcement of the law to facilitate broader agreements.

Magister concluded that Trump’s presidency would likely challenge the evolving dynamics of the Catholic electorate and the growing influence of its “postliberal” wing. He also suggested that Trump’s leadership could reshape global ecclesiastical and geopolitical relations in ways that remain to be seen.