By The Washington Times (World News) | Created at 2026-08-03 17:58:51 | Updated at 2026-08-03 23:44:23
7 hours ago
President Trump is pushing the so-called Donroe Doctrine, a rebirth of the early 1800s Monroe Doctrine of President James Monroe, who sought U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere.
Today, the doctrine finds Washington more aggressively countering China, Russia and Latin America, taking direct U.S. military action to topple Venezuela’s president while flirting with regime change in communist Cuba.
But what are the political nuances of Latin America that U.S. national security community officials should be most aware of going forward?
I’m Guy Taylor, National Security Editor at The Washington Times.
And for this edition of the Threat Status Influencers Series, we’re lucky to be joined by Michael Shifter, the longtime head of a nonpartisan organization called the Inter-American Dialogue and an adjunct professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.
[TAYLOR] Let’s jump right into this. What are the big picture realities in the region that U.S. officials should be most aware of? Is it Chinese and Russian influence? Is it human rights? How do you frame it?
[SHIFTER] First of all, the United States should understand that it’s probably more a topic of conversation in the United States than it has been in my entire career. More people are talking about the United States. I’ve been traveling to a variety of countries, and it’s never been like this. And this is because of a very aggressive policy from Washington and President Trump really setting the agenda and every country reacting to the United States. That has never been quite the case, at least in five decades that I’ve been working in this region. I think that’s a very important fact.
The other thing is the spread of organized crime in the region. There used to be countries like Costa Rica that not long ago were seen as kind of oases and fairly secure, safe places. And now they really are confronting organized crime, spreading criminality, not only about drug trade, but also other illicit activities, other smuggling. So that, I think, is a key trend.
To a much greater extent than Russia, China is really a very significant player, has been for a long time in Latin America. This is not something new. China’s been the main trading partner of South America since 2010. We’re in 2026. Obviously, it varies from country to country. The relationship is evolving in Latin America and South America and also Central America and Mexico.
And I think finally, the people in the region are fairly impatient and fairly frustrated with the governments they have. Recently, we’ve seen a turn to more rightist governments, but that’s because there were leftist governments that were incumbent and that weren’t performing well, weren’t delivering. People want results. They’re less interested in procedures or institutions than they are in concrete results in terms of the economy and security and governance issues. And if they don’t deliver, they will look for alternatives. So I don’t think there’s necessarily… people of the region are not becoming more ideologically right-leaning. They’re just looking for alternatives that work.
[TAYLOR] Will the Dunroe Doctrine backfire and sow anti-U.S. sentiment in the region, or are there many regional players who are welcoming it?
[SHIFTER] I think for now, there are many regional players that are welcoming it. I think nobody wants to pick a fight with the Trump administration in the region. And so they are trying to respond in the best way. Some are a little bit more confrontational and pushing back. Some of the bigger countries like Brazil can afford to do that. Some of the smaller countries in Central America and in the Caribbean can’t afford to do that. If they push back too hard, they can get punished and they would suffer a great deal. So they’re much more cautious. So I think it varies from country to country.
[TAYLOR] Let’s talk first about Venezuela. This is where this Trump administration policy is really most on display. What are the biggest challenges right now politically in Venezuela? And what would success look like? And then also, do you anticipate there actually being a democratic election in Venezuela anytime soon?
[SHIFTER] Nobody predicted these devastating earthquakes that hit Venezuela at the end of June. But I think if anybody told me that there were going to be devastating earthquakes, I think the incompetent response of the government was predictable. We know that there are no strong institutions in Venezuela. These have been destroyed by over a quarter of a century of Chavista rule. And so the major challenge in Venezuela is building those institutions. And I think we’ve seen clear evidence that they are completely incapable and completely corrupt.
[TAYLOR] Is the U.S. policy and the Trump administration approach actually making any progress on building?
[SHIFTER] So far, the progress has been very, very small. I think the focus right now has been on investing, especially in the oil sector and increasing production of oil, which, of course, is the main commodity. This is an oil economy in Venezuela. And it’s really been on doing business and the economy.
They’ve talked about a plan to eventually turn to elections. There are talks that will begin in early August between the head of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodriguez, the brother of the interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, and a former head of the National Assembly, Dinorah Figuera. And they’re going to talk about trying to rebuild electoral authorities to create the conditions for an eventual election. But right now, there’s no timetable. There’s no date that’s been set.
Watch the video for the full conversation.
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