WATCH: Iowa ‘Polling Guru’ Confuses Basic Polling Terminology, Asks What ‘D’ & ‘R’ Mean

By Free Republic | Created at 2024-11-04 17:19:01 | Updated at 2024-11-05 23:13:26 1 day ago

WATCH: Iowa ‘Polling Guru’ Confuses Basic Polling Terminology, Asks What ‘D’ & ‘R’ Mean
Trending Politics ^ | 11/3/2024 | Cullen McCue

Posted on 11/04/2024 8:42:32 AM PST by Signalman

Veteran Iowa pollster Ann Selzer — whose stellar track record is currently in question after a bizarre Hawkeye State poll that found Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three percentage points — was confused over what “D” and “R” meant in her own cross tabs.

While Selzer’s poll has long been viewed as the gold standard in Iowa, her latest presidential poll is turning heads after the bizarre result. If Selzer’s result proves accurate, Iowa would have shifted 11 points to the left in one election cycle, when Trump carried the state by eight percentage points. The poll also found Harris leading among senior voters by 19, even though the demographic supported Trump by nine in 2020 and four in 2016.

Conservative political analyst Ryan Girdusky analyzed the cross tabs of Selzer’s poll and compared them with her 2020 exit poll results, stating that the results were “straight crazy.”

Overall: D+3/R+8
Senior Women: D+35/D+6
Senior Men: R+2/R+32
Indies: D+7/D+4
Women: D+20/D+3
Men: R+14/R+19
Rurals: R+20/R+28
Suburbs: D+23/R+3
No College: R+12/R+17
College: D+30/D+7

For the indies to move nothing, she’s saying Republicans are shifting further to left than independents.

On Sunday, Selzer joined veteran political reporter Mark Halperin to discuss the results on the latest episode of 2Way.

“Okay. Could you just go through and say what you think about those criticisms?” Halperin asked in reference to Girdusky’s post. “Well, I’m trying, this is in a format that’s a little difficult for me to see. What does this D represent and the R represent?” the veteran pollster replied, seemingly not knowing that “R” and “D” stand for “Republicans” and “Democrats.”

So they’re saying that, and again, he says, read through the cells are cross-tabbed. So they’re saying that they know that this poll shows, and again, they say your sample is 3% more Democrats than Republican, whereas the electorate last time was 8% more Republican,” Halperin then explained. “It says that you had Indies voting Democrat plus four, whereas last time they voted for plus seven plus four. So they’re saying if you compare what you have with what happened in 20, according to the exit polls, it’s way too it’s way too big a change across all these groups in a uniform way towards pro Harris as opposed to Trump.”

“Yeah, well, this is the first time I’m seeing this, and so it’s sort of against my nature to think I understand everything that this is saying. And I haven’t cross-checked these numbers to know how that actually pans out,” Selzer answered. “But I’m going to say that it’s it is clear that senior women are an advantage to Kamala Harris in our poll. Kamala Harris wins by more than two to one, actually maybe even more than that among senior women. Kamala Harris wins by more than two to one, actually maybe even more than that among senior women.”

TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: iowa; iowapolling; polling

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1 posted on 11/04/2024 8:42:32 AM PST by Signalman

To: Signalman

2 posted on 11/04/2024 8:44:03 AM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Only two more days and Walzy can go home to Minnesota and Harriz back to wherever. Canada?)

To: Signalman

I don’t know how this thread was posted twice. Moderator please delete one of them.

3 posted on 11/04/2024 8:45:50 AM PST by Signalman

To: Signalman

Selzer is a very stupid person. She also admittedly oversampled older liberal women.

4 posted on 11/04/2024 8:46:13 AM PST by bigbob

To: Signalman

D is for the democratic party and R stands for the Republican Party.

5 posted on 11/04/2024 8:47:21 AM PST by No name given ( Anonymous is who you’ll know me as )

To: bigbob

Which shows how ignorant and naïve she is.

6 posted on 11/04/2024 8:47:48 AM PST by No name given ( Anonymous is who you’ll know me as )

7 posted on 11/04/2024 8:49:55 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Putin should skip ahead to where he kills himself in the bunker.)

To: No name given

“D is for the democratic party and R stands for the Republican Party.”

Do you really believe she doesn’t know that?

8 posted on 11/04/2024 8:50:09 AM PST by TexasGator (FIXED! I. I I l I l l "l I l / .I lI . l I l l l I I l /l l . l l l l l . I l I .)

To: bigbob

She purposedly oversampled more than just one Democrat-leaning groups to get the desired result. She sacrificed her reputation to give Kamala and her supporters a ray of hope.

To: No name given

I take them as damned and redeemed but that’s just me. :)

10 posted on 11/04/2024 8:52:40 AM PST by xp38

To: Signalman

R stands for Republican d stands for demonic

11 posted on 11/04/2024 8:54:41 AM PST by Herakles (Diversity is applied Marxism )

To: xp38

She’s 68 years old. If her future business tanks it’s no big deal. Just call it a career.

12 posted on 11/04/2024 8:55:26 AM PST by DIRTYSECRET

To: Signalman

What a freaking IDIOT!! A "respected" pollster doesn't know what "D" and "R" mean?

And she is focusing on "senior women" in Iowa? She is intentionally obfuscated the data because she focused on such a small chunk of the Iowa electorate:

That's almost like focusing on the green-eyed, left-handed, young, tranny, dwarf part of the electorate.

13 posted on 11/04/2024 8:59:23 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (“President Trump sells out Madison Square Garden -- Kamala sells out America”)

To: Signalman

Senior moment? Vaccine damage? Going the road of 0’biδen?

(There a are a lot of Rats that are going to have to feign dementia or exaggerate their incompetence over the next few years to keep from going to prison - it worked for 0’biδen to fool special counsel Hur)

14 posted on 11/04/2024 8:59:24 AM PST by Tellurian (Any cleverness from a democrat is quickly invested in deception)

To: No name given

“D is for the democratic party and R stands for the Republican Party.”

EVERYBODY here knows that. But this “highly respected and accurate” pollster does not know that???

15 posted on 11/04/2024 9:00:02 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (“President Trump sells out Madison Square Garden -- Kamala sells out America”)

To: Tellurian

going for her 15 minutes of fame before retiring.

16 posted on 11/04/2024 9:02:49 AM PST by ChronicMA

To: Signalman

17 posted on 11/04/2024 9:02:58 AM PST by bray (It's not racist to be racist against races the DNC hates.)

To: DIRTYSECRET

Yep. She’s pushing 70 with secure reputation, and a main employer who is increasingly kook woke Leftist. No harm to her for faking it one time to help her dream of a kook Leftist woman president, or even just covering for The Steal.

Big payoff for her selling methodology, and a retirement gig being adored in endless MSM interviews.

18 posted on 11/04/2024 9:07:28 AM PST by jjotto ( Blessed are You LORD, who crushes enemies and subdues the wicked.)

To: Signalman

HAS she joined BIDEN in the DEMENTIA list.

19 posted on 11/04/2024 9:10:00 AM PST by ridesthemiles (not giving up on TRUMP---EVER)

To: Signalman

“I was just joking! C’mon guys, Of course I know what those initials mean. I have 13 years of experience. OMG!”

20 posted on 11/04/2024 9:13:58 AM PST by lee martell

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