A rare 5/5 severe weather warning is in effect April 2 for parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, with life-threatening tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds.
The National Weather Service (NWS) issued its highest-level alert forecasting a dangerous tornado outbreak to unfold Wednesday and into Wednesday night, across portions of the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio River valleys.
The rare “high risk” alert, designated as level 5 out of 5, includes parts of eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Mississippi, and southern Indiana.
Cities under the highest threat include Memphis, Tennessee.; Jonesboro and Pine Bluff, Arkansas; Bartlett, Tennessee. and Southaven, Mississippi.
According to the NWS Storm Prediction Center, numerous tornadoes are expected, with multiple long-track and intense tornadoes rated EF3 or stronger likely. The storms could also produce wind gusts over 75 mph and hail as large as baseballs.
“A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight,” the Storm Prediction Center stated in a public outlook issued April 2.
The most dangerous storms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening from northern Louisiana into eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and Kentucky, and parts of southern Illinois and Indiana.
“This region appears to have the most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability, strong deep-layer shear, and ample low-level shear to support multiple tornadic storms,” the Storm Prediction Center noted.
Severe storms began Wednesday morning across Missouri, Oklahoma, and northern Texas. They are expected to intensify and evolve into more dangerous supercells and storm clusters by later in the day.
In response, the Storm Prediction Center expanded the high risk area southward to include more of eastern and south-central Arkansas.
In addition to the tornado threat, hailstones 2 to 3 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts remain possible throughout the day and into the night. The severe weather zone could extend northeast into the Ohio Valley and south toward the Southern Plains.
Forecasters also warn of flash flooding from thunderstorms in the same areas.
The Storm Prediction Center issued a “moderate risk” for excessive rainfall on Wednesday, overlapping the high risk tornado zone. Some locations could see six or more inches of rain through Thursday, with totals possibly exceeding a foot by the weekend.
“This event will bring potentially historic amounts of rainfall,” the NWS said in its forecast discussion issued early Wednesday, noting that saturated ground will worsen the flash flood threat. Flood watches and warnings are expected to continue expanding across the region.
The severe weather is expected to persist into Thursday and beyond, with additional rounds of storms forecast across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. Flash flooding risks are expected to rise Thursday through Saturday as a stalled front triggers multiple days of storms over the same areas.
Officials urge residents to have emergency plans in place and stay tuned to weather alerts.
The Storm Prediction Center advises that anyone in the path of a tornado warning should seek shelter immediately in a basement or a windowless interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.