West Ham vs Arsenal Prediction

Arsenal are clear favourites with the Opta supercomputer to claim three points in the Premier League on Saturday. Look ahead to the game at the London Stadium with our West Ham vs Arsenal prediction and preview.

West Ham vs Arsenal: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer has Arsenal as overwhelming favourites for this game, giving them a 61.2% win probability to West Ham’s 18.5%.
• Bukayo Saka has 28 goal involvements in Premier League London derbies and scored twice in last season’s corresponding fixture.
• The Gunners have lost just two of 26 London derbies since the start of 2022-23, though one of those was to the Hammers.

Arsenal could scarcely have hand-picked a better opponent to try and end a mini stretch of away-day blues than West Ham.

The Gunners have failed to win their past four top-flight matches on the road (D2 L2), their longest run since a stretch of seven between December 2019 and June 2020. The final six of those were actually Mikel Arteta’s first away games in charge.

Prior to this current blip, Arsenal had won 10 and drawn one of the opening 11 away Premier League games in 2024. Their past 16 away days at the Hammers have yielded 10 wins, five draws and just a solitary defeat, while their last trip to the London Stadium was a 6-0 hammering of a side then managed by David Moyes.

Bukayo Saka netted twice on that occasion and the England star has been involved in 21 goals in his previous 25 London derbies in the Premier League (9 goals, 12 assists), including in his last six versus West Ham. Only Thierry Henry (55), Dennis Bergkamp (38), Robin van Persie (33) and Ian Wright (32) can better his overall tally of 28 goal involvements in such fixtures.

Saka is a man in form, having been involved in 12 Premier League goals this term (4 goals, 8 assists). Only Liverpool star Mohamed Salah (16) has been involved in more. Saka has scored and assisted in three different games and only Salah has done so in more matches (4).

Arsenal have been involved in 26 London derbies since the beginning of the 2022-23 campaign, losing just two of those – one of which was against West Ham. That match represented the only one of those contests that they failed to score.

On the flip side, the Hammers have lost two straight home London derbies in the top flight, losing 2-0 to Fulham and 3-0 against Chelsea. They last lost three in a row back in December 2019, while you have to go back to 2008 for the last time they were beaten in three on the spin at home, with both of those runs including losses to Arsenal.

Julen Lopetegui has endured a tough start to life as West Ham boss but they have taken seven points from three home top-flight games, as many as they chalked up in their previous nine.

After beating Newcastle United 2-0 last time out, they can rack up back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since March and a third straight clean sheet for the first time since a run of four in December-January last season, which included a 2-0 triumph over Arsenal.

The Gunners are already without Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu for this contest, and fellow defender Gabriel Magalhães is a doubt after going off late in the 5-1 Champions League thrashing of Sporting CP on Tuesday.

Lopetegui is banned from the touchline after an accumulation of bookings, while Mohammed Kudus serves the last of a five-match ban on the pitch. Edson Álvarez returns from suspension but Niclas Füllkrug is still out and Jean-Clair Todibo is a doubt after going off injured versus Newcastle.

West Ham vs Arsenal Head-to-Head

Historically, West Ham have not fared too well against Arsenal.

Indeed, they have lost more Premier League games overall (36) and at home (15) against the Gunners than they have against any other opponent in the competition.

Arsenal have lost just one of their past 16 top-flight games against the Irons (W10 D5) and, as mentioned, ran out resounding 6-0 victors in last season’s corresponding fixture.

West Ham vs Arsenal Prediction

Unsurprisingly, it is Arsenal who are heavily fancied by the Opta supercomputer to triumph in this fixture, holding a 61.2% chance of victory from the 10,000 simulations conducted.

West Ham have an 18.5% chance of securing victory in this London derby, with the draw occurring of 20.3% of occasions.

West Ham vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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