What are Beijing’s plans for Taiwan after Ukraine shock? ‘Two sessions’ may offer clues

As China’s political elite gather for the country’s annual legislative sessions this week, we examine the broader forces likely to influence policies and decision-making for the coming year. The fourth part of the series looks at Taiwan.

Military action by Beijing to reunite Taiwan has long prompted forecasts about the timing of such a full-scale operation. For some – the answer is 2025.

A much-cited prediction is an internal US military memo from two years ago, sent by a four-star US Air Force general to the officers under his command.

“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” General Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, wrote in January 2023.

With leadership elections due in both Taiwan and the US in 2024, Washington would be “distracted”, giving Beijing an opening to make a move, Minihan said.

However, the year’s biggest geopolitical surprise so far has been on the Ukrainian front, with President Volodymyr Zelensky being told by an angry US President Donald Trump that Kyiv had to accept a deal with Moscow or be abandoned by the United States.