What does Trump's win mean for the Israel-Hamas conflict?

It didn't take long for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to welcome Donald Trump's reelection, describing it as "the greatest comeback in history." His far-right coalition ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, tweeted their excitement even before the election was officially called.

Netanyahu was "among the first to call" the president-elect, his office said in a statement. "Their conversation was warm and cordial" and the two "agreed to work together for Israel's security, and also discussed the Iranian threat."

Trump's victory came just hours after Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who was seen as a key point of contact for the Biden administration in the Israeli government.

According to a postelection poll published by the commercial TV Channel 12, 67% of Israelis said they were "pleased with Trump's victory."

This sentiment was also palpable on the streets.

"We hope that Donald Trump will do great things for our country, also for America. But mainly he has made a lot of promises and if he can keep even half of those promises, there just will be no words," Benaya Koller, a young passerby in Jerusalem, told DW.

For some critics of the Netanyahu government, however, Trump's comeback doesn't bode well. 

"I think for Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, having the kind of Israeli government we have today, the most extreme Israeli government in the history of this country, was kind of an equivalent of winning the Israeli lottery,"  said Yehuda Shaul, co-founder of Ofek, an Israeli think tank. "Getting Trump into the White House is like they won also the American lottery."

First-term policies in favor of Israel

During his first term, Trump took several controversial policy steps in support of Israel. In 2017, he recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and relocated the US embassy there from Tel Aviv, reversing decades of US policy and international opinion on the matter. He also recognized Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria during the 1967 war and illegally annexed in 1981.

Trump is also considered to be the architect of the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements that normalized relations with some Arab countries but bypassed the Palestinians and any solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Some analysts believe Trump may push for normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia in his second term.

He may also try to revive the so-called Deal of the Century — a plan that envisioned Israel's annexation of all its settlements in the occupied West Bank while granting Palestinians some autonomy in the remaining enclaves. 

In recent years, however, relations between Netanyahu and Trump have cooled. When Trump lost the 2020 election, he seemed annoyed when Netanyahu congratulated US President Joe Biden on winning the presidency. After the Hamas-led terror attacks on October 7, 2023, Trump criticized Netanyahu for being unprepared, claiming it would not have happened if he was still president.

Some analysts have called Netanyahu's relationship with Trump, who is often described as unpredictable, as complex.

"I think he's somewhat afraid of Trump. He thinks he can manipulate him, but he's afraid that if Trump is onto him, Trump could get very angry as opposed to Biden, who for some reason, never pressured him back, never pushed back on his manipulations," said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat in New York.

Tense Mideast situation will require US attention

The situation in the Middle East will most certainly require the attention of the next US administration. Trump has not laid out a major policy plan for the region, except to claim that he would end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, without elaborating on how he would differ from the Biden administration.

Image: Israel Defense Forces/Handout/Xinhua/picture alliance

"Mr. Trump made it clear to Mr. Netanyahu that he wants this finished by January 20 when he goes into the White House," said Pinkas. In April, Trump said Israel was losing "the PR war in Gaza" and urged the country to "finish it fast."

Critics have accused Netanyahu of playing for time to wait for a new US president, despite the Biden administration's full military and political support for the Israeli government throughout the war. Netanyahu is happy with Trump, said Pinkas, because "Trump is not going to press him on the Palestinian issue at all."

During the first Trump administration, Washington rejected the commonly held international position that Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank are illegal under international law.

"I fear that what we're going to face is a carte blanche for the Israeli government to do whatever they want in the West Bank, further annexing the West Bank as part of the agenda of this government," said Yehuda Shaul, who is also a former co-founder of Breaking the Silence, an organization of ex-soldiers critical of Israel's military occupation. "And I fear that the risk of rebuilding settlements into Gaza has just grown dramatically."

Though the Trump-era policy had been reversed by the Biden administration, some analysts suggest it laid the foundation for the push for full annexation now gaining support.

"The massive power that the annexation camp in Israel has today would not have happened without the first Trump term," said Shaul. "When you have the entire force of US diplomacy bending the laws and the rules, for example, with recognizing Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights, I fear we are going to see more of that."

'Euphoric mood' among Israeli settlers

Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported Thursday on the "euphoric mood" in the Israeli settler establishment over Trump's reelection. Settler leaders have a clear post-inauguration plan of action, the paper noted, and have been working with key Republican players over the past few years to prepare the ground for Trump's return.

According to the article, their plans include launching "an initiative to apply Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria and 'seizing territory' for the establishment of new settlement outposts in the northern Gaza Strip."

Annexing more territory would effectively end the idea of a two-state solution and the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state. While Netanyahu has denied any plans to reestablish Israeli settlements in Gaza, statements by Israeli officials and ministers have suggested otherwise.

There are also concerns Palestinians won't be able to return to northern Gaza, where Israel has renewed a ground offensive against what it has said are Hamas militants in the area, and where residents say they are trapped in the fighting amid a dire situation.

Image: Ashraf Amra/Anadolu/picture alliance

An estimated 90% of Gaza's population has been displaced during the 14-month war. One of them is 22-year-old Shadi Assad from the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza. He has little hope that a new US administration will bring anything positive and just wants to go home.

"Harris was part of the current US administration, and she supported Israel and the war," Shadi Asaad told DW by phone from southern Gaza. The engineering student has been displaced several times and now lives with his family in a tent in Khan Younis.

"We live in an unprecedented state of humiliation, and no one cares about us," he said. "We just want the war to stop, with or without a deal, with or without Trump."

Edited by: Martin Kuebler