By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-07 17:34:00 | Updated at 2024-11-15 14:26:41
1 week ago
After Manchester City’s win over Southampton, we fired up the Opta supercomputer to see how the result in Arsenal vs Liverpool on Sunday will affect the three teams’ title chances.
We’re still in October, but already the Premier League title race is hotting up. And Sunday’s headline fixture could have huge consequences on where the title is heading in May.
According to the Opta supercomputer, at least.
Manchester City went top of the league with their 1-0 win over Southampton on Saturday, moving two points clear of Liverpool in second and six clear of Arsenal, who are now fourth after Aston Villa’s draw with Bournemouth.
Arsenal haven’t had the smoothest start to the season, and the Opta supercomputer believes defeat at home to Liverpool on Sunday would be a major blow to their title hopes.
Going into the game, City are huge favourites to win the league, crowned champions in 75.1% of the supercomputer’s current simulations. They are predicted to remain huge favourites whatever the result at the Emirates.
However, Arsenal’s chances of winning the title – rated at 6.1% following City’s result on Saturday – will be heavily impacted depending on whether they win, lose or draw.
A home win over Liverpool would mean that come full-time, they would win the league in 11% of the supercomputer’s simulations. That would drop to 7% if they draw, and go all the way down to 4% should they lose.
Coming into the game on the back of their first defeat of the season at Bournemouth and without key man William Saliba, who was sent off at the Vitality Stadium and so misses out on Sunday through suspension, there will be more than a few Arsenal fans who fear for their side this weekend. Since Saliba made his debut for the club, Arsenal have won 74.0% of their Premier League games with him in the starting XI, compared to just 45.5% when he is missing.
Mikel Arteta is also sweating on the fitness of star man Bukayo Saka, while with every passing day it seems increasingly likely that captain Martin Ødegaard will miss out. Ødegaard has not appeared for Arsenal since August, and they have understandably struggled for fluidity in midfield and creativity without him.
Contending without one of those players would be difficult enough, so if Arsenal were to go into Sunday’s game against Liverpool without all three, their task will be made even harder.
It also doesn’t help that they are set to face a Liverpool side who have made a sensational start to life under new manager Arne Slot. Liverpool have won 11 out of 12 games in all competitions this season, including each of the last eight in a row. In eight Premier League games, they have conceded just three goals. No other side has conceded fewer than six.
For Liverpool, a win over Arsenal would see their title hopes jump to 22% in the Opta supercomputer’s calculations. They’d be given a 15% likelihood of winning the league if they get a point at the Emirates, while their title chances will fall to 12% in the event of a defeat – though they will still be rated as more likely to win the league than Arsenal (11%), who would remain a point behind them.
Given how damaging a defeat would be, it wouldn’t be a surprise if either team was content with a draw. Whatever happens, there will be major consequences on the title race.
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