By 90min | Created at 2025-01-30 08:32:04 | Updated at 2025-01-30 18:51:31
10 hours ago
While the weekends have typically been fraught with chaos and eventual misery, Manchester United's midweek outings have offered Ruben Amorim moments of serenity.
The Red Devils have won all of their Europa League encounters with their new Portuguese manager at the helm, although they were forced to strike late on against Rangers last week.
After Cyril Dessers outwitted Harry Maguire and finished wonderfully to level proceedings, skipper Bruno Fernandes produced the goods in stoppage time to seal a 2-1 win for Amorim's side. In the blink of an eye, United had ventured up to fourth from ninth in the league phase table.
As a result, United are in a strong position to finish in the top eight and thus qualify for the round of 16. Opta's supercomputer suggests they have an 89.8% chance of a top-eight finish, but there's still work to do against FCSB in Romania on Thursday night.
Let's take a look at how a United win, draw, and defeat in Bucharest would affect their chances of round of 16 qualification.
United could finish in the top two if they win in Bucharest / Shaun Botterill/GettyImages
Man Utd head into this fixture with a bit of momentum after Lisandro Martinez's deflected goal helped them to a 1-0 win over Fulham at the weekend.
If they're able to build on back-to-back wins in Bucharest and claim victory again, United will be assured of a spot in the round of 16 given that they sit fourth in the table. There'd also be scope for them to climb up the table and potentially finish in the top two.
While Lazio are in an imperious position at the summit, Eintracht Frankfurt and Athletic Club are just a point ahead. Frankfurt travel to Roma on Matchday 8, while Athletic host a Viktoria Plzen side aiming to secure a top-eight finish.
If Man Utd draw with FCSB
FCSB are unbeaten at home in the league phase / Aziz Karimov/GettyImages
Before beating Viktoria Plzen under Amorim, United drew with Porto and Fenerbahce away from home in this competition.
A draw is entirely plausible in Bucharest with FCSB yet to taste defeat at home in the league phase. While a stalemate would leave United at some risk, they'd likely squeak into the round of 16 with this result.
Eighth-placed FCSB would remain behind them, and only two teams outside the top eight - Galatasaray and Bodo/Glimt - would be able to match their 16-point haul. Gala have a tricky game away at Ajax, while Bodo/Glimt will be expected to beat Nice away from home.
If United draw, they'll only miss out on the round of 16 if the three teams immediately below them in the table - Lyon, Tottenham, and Anderlecht - win, as well as Galatasaray. Bodo/Glimt would need to win by two or more goals to usurp the Red Devils.
Defeat and United risk slipping out of the top eight / Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/GettyImages
Now, this is a situation United will be keen to avoid. However, they still have a decent chance of making the top eight even if they lose to FCSB.
For the Red Devils to advance into the round of 16 despite losing on Thursday, they'll likely need at least three of these teams to slip-up: Lyon, Tottenham, Anderlecht, Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Viktoria Plzen and Olympiacos.
Plzen and Olympiacos would be level on points with United if they both win and the Red Devils lose. The pair are two goals behind on goal difference.
If United fall out of the top eight, they'll be forced to compete in the knockout round play-off - a two-legged affair where seeded teams (those who finish between ninth and 16th) take on unseeded teams (those who finish between 17th and 24th). The winners of those ties will join the top eight from the league phase in the Europa League round of 16.
