What next for Romania after its recent electoral chaos?

As has often been the case since the overthrow of communism 35 years ago, Romania is currently oscillating between the tragic and the grotesque.

It is simultaneously tragic and grotesque that a massive reform backlog and a deep-seated mistrust of politicians have propelled extreme right-wing, pro-Russian charlatans to major electoral successes in recent weeks.

Equally tragic and grotesque is the fact that the country's traditional political elite does not seem willing to learn anything from the situation.

Coalition negotiations underway

After the parliamentary election on December 1 and the annulment on December 6 of the first round of the presidential election in late November, a large "pro-European coalition" of all mainstream democratic parties and lawmakers began discussing the formation of a government.

Thirty five years after communism was overthrown in the weeks before Christmas, Romania is experiencing a politically uncertain pre-Christmas periodImage: Cristian Ștefănescu/DW

However, the horse trading over posts and power struggles over minor matters would appear to be taking precedence over the fundamental reforms that Romania needs.

The TikTok candidate

The result of the annulled first round of the presidential election was a massive shock: Calin Georgescu, an extreme right-wing independent with fundamentalist Christian Orthodox, pro-Russian, esoteric views, who was largely unknown in Romania before the election, came out of nowhere to win the poll.

Georgescu condemns anything "Western" as damaging, glorifies the Romanian fascists of the interwar years and has called for Romania's withdrawal from both the EU and NATO.

Shortly before the election, Georgescu's videos suddenly spread like wildfire on TikTok, which is why he is often described as the "TikTok" candidate.

Surprise election annulment

The Constitutional Court initially declared the first round outcome as legal only to surprisingly annul it two days before the runoff was due to take place on December 8.

The extreme right-wing Calin Georgescu won the first round of the Romanian presidential election, which was subsequently annulledImage: Alexandru Dobre/AP/picture alliance

The ruling was based on documents published by the secret services that said that Georgescu had, among other things, received massive financial and logistical support from a Romanian IT specialist to ensure that his videos were more widely shared.

They also claimed that a "state player" — an indirect reference to Russia — helped increase Georgescu's profile on social media and hacked the IT infrastructure of Romania's electoral authority.

Flimsy evidence, unprofessional work

The evidence that has been made public is flimsy. Moreover, the documents give the impression that the work of the Romanian secret services is shoddy and unprofessional.

Indeed, their completely opaque working methods have been a problem for decades. Although prescribed by law, there is no real parliamentary oversight of their work, and reports on the services' activities are either provided too late or not at all.

The Romanian Directorate for Investigating Organized Crime and Terrorism is currently investigating Georgescu, among other things to determine whether he illegally funded his electoral campaign.

The European Union has also opened formal proceedings against TikTok to determine whether it influenced the election outcome.

The role of the Constitutional Court

The Romanian public is also deeply divided about the annulment of the election. Many citizens and some political parties see it as an act of contempt for the democratic will of the people.

Romania's Constitutional Court has a reputation in Romania for being politically dependent and weak in terms of some of its members' expertise.

Far-right politician George Simion came fourth in the first round of the presidential electionImage: Andreea Alexandru/AP Photo/picture alliance

In October, it excluded the extreme right-wing presidential candidate Diana Sosoaca — but not other far-right candidates — from the election.

It's considered an open secret in Bucharest that with this ruling, the largest party in government, the Social Democrats, hoped to ensure that its man, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, would go into the runoff as the favorite against George Simion, head of the extreme right-wing Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), who was seen as having little chance of winning.

Pro-reform party not wanted in the coalition?

The nominally pro-European parties got a majority in the parliamentary election on December 1. These include the Social Democrats (PSD), the National Liberals (PNL), the progressive-liberal Save Romania Union (USR) and the national-conservative Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR).

However, three extreme right-wing parties — including the AUR — now have more than a third of all seats in both chambers of parliament.

After the election, the remaining mainstream parties and the 19 obligatory lawmakers for the country's national minorities agreed to form a "pro-European coalition" and not to cooperate with extreme right-wing parties.

USR leader Elena Lasconi (center) has criticized the reform program tabled by the "pro-European coalition" as being a rehash of past unkept promisesImage: Ovidiu Micsik/Inquam/REUTERS

However, the progressive-liberal USR, the only seriously pro-reform party in Romania, does not seem to be welcome in this coalition. It has not been invited to some of the talks, and its calls for a reform program underpinned by a corresponding draft budget have so far been ignored.

The USR also chose not to take part in a round of talks where posts were filled before a government program was agreed. When a program of reforms was eventually tabled, USR leader Elena Lasconi criticized it as being a rehash of past unkept promises.

Because USR members have said that they don't want to be just a fig leaf, it is possible that the party will not actually join the coalition at all.

Was a coup planned?

But these are not the only tragic and grotesque episodes currently playing out in Romania.

Another is the attempted coup that was allegedly planned by a group linked to former member of the French Foreign Legion Horatiu Potra.

For a long time, Potra led a group of mercenaries in the Democratic Republic of Congo and is said to be responsible for serious war crimes committed there. He is also considered a Georgescu supporter and is known to have met him after the first round of the presidential election.

Despite the fact that his country is in turmoil, President Klaus Iohannis is keeping a low profileImage: Ludovic Marin/AP Photo/picture alliance

On December 8, the day the presidential runoff was due to take place, Potra and a number of other men were arrested as they made their way by car to Bucharest with weapons, military equipment and large sums of money.

The authorities initially spoke of a "planned coup." Now, however, it is being said that Potra wanted to organize a show of public unrest. He was arrested after an anonymous call was made to emergency services.

It is not clear why the authorities did not move sooner against Potra, who has since been released from prison.

Silence from the presidential palace

Throughout all this, President Klaus Iohannis would appear to have gone to ground. Despite the country's extremely difficult political situation, he is keeping a low profile, posting short Facebook messages once every six days.

It is unclear when a new presidential election will take place. At the same time, events relating to the annulled first round of the presidential election still have to be investigated.

In short, the path ahead for Romania is anything but clear.

This article was originally published in German.