By New York Post (Opinion) | Created at 2025-01-25 16:36:45 | Updated at 2025-01-27 05:58:14
1 day ago
A week into the Gaza cease-fire, a trio of Israeli hostages have been released in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel in the first phase of the tri-stage deal. Four more Israeli hostages are to be freed this weekend, as Israel continues to retreat from major Gazan villages and towns. It’s all part of a broader cease-fire plan, which President Trump and former President Joe Biden say was accepted by both sides. The deal, if fully implemented, will see the release of some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for all of Israel’s hostages. That would effectively leave Hamas, while weakened, still in power in the Gaza Strip.
Despite the high price, the cease-fire is popular with an Israeli public weary of war. There is a widespread sense that it’s time to end this phase of the Gaza conflict and account for its larger consequences. Indeed, Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi resigned this past week, citing the intelligence failures that led to Hamas’ Oct. 7 invasion. Halevi was soon followed by the general who heads the Southern Command, which includes the Gaza region.
Israel’s moderate, liberal opposition — which seeks some sort of peace arrangement with the Palestinians, and is open to Palestinian statehood — called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take their lead and allow new elections, which polls show he would lose.
Netanyahu isn’t likely to do that — nor does he need to until the next election, scheduled in late 2026. Instead, the pressure Netanyahu feels most acutely comes from Israeli far-right coalition members — who have 14 of the 68 seats in Israel’s 120-member parliament and can bring him down at any moment. These lawmakers, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have espoused dreams of occupying Gaza — which Israel turned over to Palestinian rule in 2005 — resettling it with Jews and even displacing the Palestinians.
Many in Netanyahu’s shaky coalition oppose the cease-fire deal and he has had to placate his skeptics by promising Israel can resume the war if negotiations about next steps stall. There is the widespread feeling in Israel that Netanyahu might want to sabotage those talks — to thwart a final cease-fire in order to prevent his government from falling.
Avoiding this dispiriting outcome is where the Trump administration becomes critical. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz’s recent statement that Hamas will never again govern Gaza suggests that the US administration may already have a long-term Gaza plan. Although still unclear, this would mostly likely see the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority help with ruling Gaza, fortified by massive reconstruction aid by the Arab world and oil-rich Gulf countries. (Reports this week suggest that the UAE is ready to lead this effort.) Hamas, of course, would have to make room for others — which would require even additional Arab world machinations.
Israel’s suspicion of the PA is not without merit; corrupt and semi-competent, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ operation will need to be both encouraged and assisted to maximize security while minimizing corruption. Still, the biggest wildcard remains Hamas. Some propose exile for its remaining leadership, others believe it might somehow become part of the Palestinian Authority, while many simply want to see its remaining military wings disbanded.
On the Israeli side, if the Americans are able to pull together a big-enough package of incentives — say, one that includes Israeli-Saudi peace — it may be possible to compel Netanyahu to more favorably view PA rule in Gaza. The Biden administration failed to bring this same vision home. But it will be harder for Netanyahu to wave off Trump, who is beloved among his base for the pro-Israel policies of his first administration, such as recognizing Jerusalem as the country’s capital. In addition, Israel’s thrashing of both Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia may enable Netanyahu to present a viable story of success in the war, even if the Gaza question remains unresolved.
Organizing a replacement for Hamas is critical, particularly as it has used this first week of the cease-fire to re-establish control in much of Gaza. Allowing Hamas to claim a victory narrative, even amid the ruins of Gaza, dangerously rewards and emboldens the group’s genocidal nihilism. This is an extraordinary moment for the Middle East. Despite some academics’ notions that US power is on the wane, the global landscape is actually telling us something else. Rarely has so much depended on a new US president.
Dan Perry is the former Associated Press regional editor for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.
