What’s Behind Trump’s Best Poll Results in Weeks

By Free Republic | Created at 2024-09-23 15:19:26 | Updated at 2024-09-30 13:27:11 6 days ago

What’s Behind Trump’s Best Poll Results in Weeks
New York Times ^ | 9/23/2024 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 09/23/2024 8:08:10 AM PDT by edwinland

This morning, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina find Donald J. Trump leading Kamala Harris in all three states, with a lead of three points in North Carolina, four points in Georgia and five points in Arizona.

In one sense, the finding is very clear: It’s a good set of numbers for Mr. Trump. It’s not necessarily an exceptional one, as Ms. Harris’s easiest path to victory lies in the Northern battlegrounds. But Mr. Trump’s path to victory begins in the Sun Belt; if he wins these three states, he wouldn’t need many more.

In another sense, this result might give you a bit of polling whiplash ... the polls have been relatively stable over the last week — or even a hair better for Vice President Harris than polls taken before the debate. These results don’t fit that story at all: On average, the results are five points better for Mr. Trump than when we last polled these states, in mid-August. And in each state, these results are the best results for Mr. Trump from a high-quality pollster in weeks.

[snip]

You might think that Mr. Trump’s gains might be driven by changes in the likelihood of Republicans or Democrats to respond to a poll. But the balance of response rates by party and race stayed exceptionally similar to what they were in August, even as the results were very different.

[snip]

It’s interesting that Mr. Trump fares so much better than his MAGA allies, whom you might think of as fundamentally similar political figures — and it’s something to monitor to see if it holds through November. For now, the big swing in the presidential race, without a large down-ballot swing, suggests there’s something specific to the presidential race at play.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...

TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: goodnews; polling

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Good analysis. Paywalled but I viewed it on archive.ph

1 posted on 09/23/2024 8:08:10 AM PDT by edwinland

To: edwinland

Polls are like statistics ... you can get whatever result you want by picking the right group to answer questions asked.

To: edwinland

“suggests there’s something specific to the presidential race at play”

Yeah. He towers over the foreigner running against him in all respects, not just physical height. Other then the ghettoized idiots here in California voting for her just cuz, the rest of the country actually notices things like that. NYC excepted of course...but even parts of that place aren’t lost to Mr. Trump.

3 posted on 09/23/2024 8:13:36 AM PDT by Regulator (It's fraud, Jim)

To: edwinland

Middle class and working class voters are coming to realize that Heels Up Harris is nothing but an empty pantsuit. IOW,they know that the lights are on but nobody’s home.

4 posted on 09/23/2024 8:13:50 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Import The Third World,Become The Third World)

To: All

Why the Trump surge?

Everytime Kamala opens her mouth, Trump scores more points.

An added point pusher——Tim Walz was sent out of hiding to make a speech this week, too.

5 posted on 09/23/2024 8:14:34 AM PDT by Liz (Faith is believing what you cannot see; its reward is to see what you believe. St Augustine)

To: edwinland

If it can’t be deciphered why polls started leaning Trump, then they’ll either have to “rid” of Trump or “shut down Maga responses” online.

6 posted on 09/23/2024 8:15:37 AM PDT by mikelets456

To: edwinland

In Georgia, the Harris commies have started running ads linking Trump to Project 2025 and others that say Jan 6th was an “insurrection’. I’m hopeful that is a sign they’re getting desperate.

7 posted on 09/23/2024 8:15:38 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (President Trump saved by DIVINE INTERVENTION. GOD CONTINUES TO BLESS AMERICA!!!)

To: edwinland

"What’s Behind Trump’s Best Poll Results in Weeks" ???

Kamala Harris???

She's a dud, and the Democrats selected her to be a dud... They've known Trump was going win this election from the moment America discovered that Biden was a vegetable. They are already prepping for 2028.

8 posted on 09/23/2024 8:17:45 AM PDT by jerod (Nazis were essentially Socialist in Hugo Boss uniforms... Get over it!)

To: Liz

Polls over the weekend touted here as Kams surging were in fact, premature.

9 posted on 09/23/2024 8:18:31 AM PDT by going hot (Happiness is a Momma deuce)

To: jerod

And they plan to collapse everything and blame it on Trump.

10 posted on 09/23/2024 8:19:17 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)

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