Which Brazilian Exports the New US Tariff Actually Hits — and Which Escape

By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-07-20 11:26:29 | Updated at 2026-08-04 18:00:56 2 weeks ago

Brazil · Trade

Key Facts

—The exposure. ApexBrasil says about US$7.2 billion of Brazil’s roughly US$38 billion in exports to the United States are hit by the new 25% tariff.

—The farm hit. Farm confederation CNA estimates 36.5% of agricultural exports to the US are affected — about US$4.6 billion.

—What escapes. Coffee, beef, fish, orange products and rare earths were exempted; 63.5% of farm export value stays outside the surcharge.

—The map. São Paulo takes the biggest absolute hit, about US$3 billion, roughly a fifth of its US sales.

—The timing. The tariff takes effect on July 22; a diversification push toward Europe and Asia is planned for August.

The scale of the United States’ new tariff on Brazil is finally coming into focus in hard numbers. The US tariff on Brazil will hit about US$7.2 billion of the country’s exports — a large sum, but a fraction of the total trade.

ApexBrasil, the government’s trade-promotion agency, says the 25% surcharge affects US$7.2 billion of the roughly US$38 billion Brazil sold to the US in 2025, according to its estimate.

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Who actually gets hit

The headline number is smaller than the alarm around it suggests. Of roughly US$38 billion in annual sales to the United States, about US$7.2 billion — under a fifth — falls under the new 25% duty, because Washington exempted a long list of goods. For agriculture specifically, the farm confederation CNA estimates 36.5% of exports to the US are affected, worth about US$4.6 billion, while 63.5% of farm export value stays outside the tariff.

The pain is concentrated rather than spread evenly. São Paulo, Brazil’s industrial heart, takes the biggest absolute hit — around US$3 billion, close to a fifth of everything it ships to the US — and Santa Catarina is also heavily exposed. For a handful of states and the towns built around specific export plants, a manageable national figure masks a severe local shock.

Why the exemptions matter

The carve-outs do a lot of work. By sparing coffee, beef, fish, orange juice and rare earths, Washington blunted the blow to Brazil’s best-known farm exports — and to American consumers who depend on them. What is left in the tariff’s path is weighted toward manufactured and semi-processed goods, where Brazilian exporters have fewer easy alternatives.

That is why the CNA has been at pains to argue that Brazil’s farm competitiveness comes from decades of productivity gains and investment, not unfair trade — a message aimed as much at Washington as at domestic audiences.

What Brazil does next

Brasília’s first move is to look elsewhere. ApexBrasil plans an August drive to steer exporters toward Europe and Asia, and officials expect serious negotiation with Washington to gain traction only after Brazil’s elections. Retaliation options, from tariffs of its own to targeting US intellectual property, remain on the table but are being held in reserve.

The United States is one of Brazil’s two largest trading partners, alongside China, so redirecting billions of dollars in sales is easier announced than done. Buyers in Europe and Asia have their own suppliers and standards, and switching markets can mean lower prices, new certification hurdles and months of lead time. That is why the diversification plan is best read as a medium-term hedge rather than an overnight fix.

For companies and investors, the practical takeaway is to look past the national total and ask a narrower question: how much of a given firm’s revenue rides on the specific products and states now in the tariff’s path. That is where the real damage — or the relief from an exemption — will show up.