By Daily Mail (U.S.) | Created at 2024-10-29 20:26:16 | Updated at 2024-11-05 03:57:00
6 days ago
Ahead of the 2024 Presidential election, see how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are really faring among voters with DailyMail.com's brilliant poll tracker.
Our interactive graphs give invaluable insight into how pollsters are predicting the outcome of the race.
Polls in the last week have seen momentum swing to Trump, but the race is still on a knife-edge and is set to be one of the closest in history.
The winner will ultimately decided in the seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.
The margins in each of the battleground are razor thin, and the next president could be decided by just a few thousand votes.
All of the data used in our analysis comes from Harris versus Trump polls collated by DailyMail.com's pollsters J.L. Partners and FiveThirtyEight.
NATIONAL VOTING INTENTION
DailyMail.com collates national polling data from FiveThirtyEight, which collates dozens of voting surveys carried out each week across the US. We only include head-to-head polls between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, meaning other candidates such as Cornel West and Jill Stein are excluded. This provides a clear snapshot of the national voting intention, or the popular vote. Because of the way US elections work, the leader of this metric won’t necessarily become President.
Individual surveys are represented by dots on the chart. Rolling weekly averages – covering Monday to Sunday – are represented by lines. For the purposes of our graph, Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden for the week beginning July 22.
NATIONAL PROBABILITY OF WINNING
Our probability graph differs to the voting intention because it takes into account numerous factors that could skew the results on the night.
JL Partners, a reputable pollster whose founders were involved in running research for the UK Conservative Government, carries out modelling to assess who is likely to win the race in each state based on current polling. This, as well as historical voting data, economic indicators and approval ratings, is combined by data scientists who then simulate the course of the election thousands of times to calculate the probability of either Trump or Harris becoming President on November 5.
STATE-BY-STATE PREDICTED WINNERS
Using the same methodology as with the national probability, DailyMail.com visualises JL Partners’ predicted results on a state-by-state basis. This shows the areas that are considered Republican or Democrat strongholds, as well as the states that could swing either way on the night.
BATTLEGROUND STATES PROBABILITY OF WINNING
This graph shows the probability model but for seven battleground states that will decide this year’s result. Between Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10), they have 93 Electoral College votes.
