Who Will Be Relegated from the Premier League in 2024-25? The Opta Supercomputer Predictions

After the latest round of Premier League matches, we use the Opta supercomputer to assess the likelihood of the teams near the bottom of the table being relegated.

---

23 December

Throughout Premier League history, being bottom of the table at Christmas has always carried considerable significance – for a while, it was seen as the death knell in a relegation battle.

While four teams have avoided the drop despite being at the foot of the table at Christmas, it still remains something of a benchmark. And it’s fair to say, history won’t make Southampton feel any more optimistic.

Saints, who appointed Ivan Juric on Saturday, did at least end a run of four successive Premier League defeats on Sunday when they drew 0-0 at Fulham. That was their first away point of the season – although it’ll unlikely have supporters suddenly contemplating a second consecutive campaign in the top flight.

After all, in 20th place they stay with six points, half as many as anyone else, with Ipswich Town and Wolves on 12 each.

Understandably, then, Saints’ relegation likelihood ahead of Christmas according to the Opta supercomputer is 97.8%.

As bleak as that looks, who’s to say the new manager can’t inspire a sudden improvement in their fortunes?

For instance, relegation rivals Wolves had lost six on the trot before the weekend and appeared to be sinking without much of a trace, with disciplinary issues also proving problematic.

But in Vitor Pereira’s first match at the helm on Sunday, Wolves ran out 3-0 winners at Leicester City – they held their three-goal lead by half-time, too.

After the prior matchday, their relegation chances went up to 67.2%, so said the Opta supercomputer; now, that’s come down to 52.4%.

Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

They’re by no means out of the woods yet, with 12 points not enough to take them out of the bottom three, but it’s a positive start to the new regime.

Another consequence of that result was to see Leicester’s survival hopes reduce considerably. The Foxes still sit just outside the relegation zone with 14 points, but in the Opta supercomputer’s season projections, they’re now the third likeliest to go down instead of Wolves.

Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side were relegated in 62% of the latest season predictions after that defeat.

Ipswich Town’s situation didn’t improve over the weekend as they were comprehensively thrashed 4-0 by Newcastle United at Portman Road on Saturday, Alexander Isak’s hat-trick doing most of the damage.

Nevertheless, it didn’t actually impact their outlook a great deal. Their relegation probability is at 76.9% in the latest projections, an increase of only 2.3 percentage points from a week ago.

Everton held Chelsea to a 0-0 draw at Goodison Park on Sunday, which most would agree was good result for the Toffees. It saw their relegation probability increase ever so slightly from 7.6% to 7.8%, but it’s hardly a cause for alarm at this point.

We also shouldn’t completely discount Crystal Palace yet. They were thrashed 5-1 at home by Arsenal on Saturday and sit level on 16 points with Everton (who’ve played a game less), though they are still only relegated in 1.6% of the season simulations.

16 December

In what felt like a pivotal weekend for the clubs at the foot of the Premier League table, the bottom two sides, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Southampton, sacked their managers.

Gary O’Neil’s reign at Wolves came to an end after yet another late defeat and questionable discipline from his players at the final whistle, while Russell Martin’s spell at Southampton finished on Sunday evening, just seven months after he had guided them back to the top flight via the Championship play-offs last season.

Southampton’s woes continued with another thrashing, this time at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur at St Mary’s. Five-nil down at half-time, the second half saw little meaningful action at either end of the pitch, as Martin’s time as Saints’ boss came to an end later that night.

Their latest defeat didn’t come as much of a shock to the Opta supercomputer, and it’ll be little surprise to most that their chances of relegation this season now stand at 97.9%, slightly higher than before the weekend (97.0%).

A 2.1% chance of survival is kind considering they’ve become just the third team in Premier League history to win five points or fewer from their opening 16 matches of a season, after Sunderland in 2005-06 (5) and Sheffield United in 2020-21 (2). None of the previous nine teams to have won fewer than nine points from their first 16 games of a Premier League season have avoided relegation.

But history offers a slightly brighter outlook for Wolves, who currently sit on nine points after 16 games.

Their latest defeat, an injury-time loss (and head loss by some players at the full-time whistle) to Ipswich Town saw the curtain fall on O’Neil’s reign as boss. However, four teams have been in their exact position before now (nine points from 16 games) and avoided relegation at the end of the season: Coventry in 1995-96, Wigan in 2007-08, Sunderland in 2013-14 and Southampton in 2018-19.

In the current supercomputer simulations, Wolves (67.2%) are relegated less often than Ipswich (74.6%), but that’s gone up from 47.2% from before Matchday 16, while Kieran McKenna’s side have fallen by over 13 percentage points since then (87.9% vs 74.6%).

Leicester City suffered their first defeat under Ruud van Nistelrooy with a 4-0 defeat at Newcastle on Saturday. Across his three games in charge, Leicester have faced 74 shots – more than any other team in the division.

Their chances of relegation now stand at 49.9%, which is slightly higher than it was before the weekend’s action (46.3%). Their upcoming clash with Wolves on Matchday 17 could make a big difference to those projections in either direction, however.

Arguably the least expected result of the weekend in the Premier League was Everton’s 0-0 draw at title-chasing Arsenal.

Sean Dyche’s side frustrated the Gunners and won a valuable point, despite showing little attacking intent themselves. They attempted just two shots all game, worth just 0.09 expected goals, and landed none on target.

Before the weekend’s action, the Toffees were relegated in 14.2% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 season simulations, nearly double the current projection (7.6%).

10 December

A collection of late goals on Sunday afternoon made a huge difference to both Ipswich Town and Leicester City.

Leading 1-0 thanks to Conor Chaplin’s first-half strike, Kieran McKenna’s side conceded an equaliser in the 87th minute before Dango Ouattara netted Bournemouth’s winner in the fifth minute of added time. That goal meant that Ipswich are still without a home win in the Premier League this season – the only team yet to secure one in 2024-25.

The late turnaround in Bournemouth’s favour means that Ipswich’s chances of falling back down to the Championship at the first time of asking has increased from 82.3% last week to 87.9% now.

There was also late drama at the King Power Stadium, where Leicester fought back from 2-0 down at home to Brighton to salvage a point thanks to a 2-2 draw. Goals from Jamie Vardy in the 86th minute and an equaliser in the 91st minute from Bobby De Cordova-Reid saw Leicester move five points above the relegation zone.

That has helped increase their chance of survival this season, too. In the Opta supercomputer’s current 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the 2024-25 Premier League season, Leicester are relegated 46.3% of the time, down from 50.5% last week following the midweek matchday.

Things continues to look bleak for Southampton following their latest defeat, as they went down 1-0 at Aston Villa on Saturday afternoon. They are stuck on five points this season – their worst-ever start to a top-flight league season.

In fact, on only three occasions has a Premier League team started as badly or worse than this: Sheffield United twice – last season (5 points) and in 2020-21 (2) – and Sunderland (5) in 2005-06. All three were relegated at the end of that season. That’s one reason why the Opta supercomputer is currently giving Southampton a league-high 97.0% chance of being relegated at the end of 2024-25.

Following a 2-1 loss at West Ham on Monday night, Wolves are languishing in the relegation zone with just nine points from 15 matches – their worst start to a top-flight campaign since 1983-84 (7 points). Unsurprisingly they were relegated that season, and the Opta supercomputer isn’t giving them much hope of surviving this time, either. Following their latest loss, Wolves are relegated in 47.2% of the current season simulations, which is up from 41.1% heading into the weekend’s action.

Despite not playing following the postponement of their Merseyside derby match against Liverpool, Everton had a positive weekend following defeats to the bottom three sides. As a result, their projected chance of relegation has fallen from 18.2% before the weekend’s action to 14.2% now.

Current outsiders for the drop are Crystal Palace (5.6%) and West Ham (1.3%), who both enjoyed positive Matchday 15 results, while Manchester United (0.2%) are the eighth favourites for the drop. That surely wouldn’t happen, though… will it?

5 December

The first midweek round of Premier League matches in 2024-25 brought joy for Everton, Leicester City and Crystal Palace, but despair for the other teams in the battle to avoid the drop to the Championship.

If Southampton weren’t already worried about falling back into the Championship, a disastrous 5-1 home defeat to Chelsea certainly will have started the jitters. Before that game, where they played with 10 men for more than a half, Saints were relegated in 93.6% of the 10,000 Opta supercomputer simulations. That chance has now increased to 95.7% following their latest loss.

Southampton have become only the seventh team to lose as many as 11 of their first 14 Premier League games in a season, along with Sunderland (2005-06), Portsmouth (2009-10), Bolton (2011-12), Aston Villa (2015-16), Sheffield United (2020-21 and 2023-24) and Burnley (2023-24). Bad news Saints’ fans – all of those teams were relegated.

A night earlier, on Tuesday, Ipswich endured more pain at Portman Road in a 1-0 defeat to Crystal Palace. Kieran McKenna’s side have failed to win any of their first seven home games of a top-flight season for the first time ever, and for just the fourth time overall in any division (also 2009-10, 2012-13 and 2018-19 in the Championship).

That result means Ipswich are relegated in 82.3% of current supercomputer simulations, up from 70.0% following the games last weekend. For Crystal Palace, another match-winner from Jean-Philippe Mateta saw their chances of the drop fall from 12.5% to 7.8% in current sims.

Ahead of Ruud van Nistelrooy’s first game in charge on Tuesday, Leicester were relegated in 67.0% of supercomputer simulations. That chance has now reduced to 50.5% after a vital 3-1 win over an under-pressure West Ham side.

The Hammers had 31 shots, their highest ever tally on record (since 2005-06) in a single Premier League match. But that only produced one goal (when they were already 3-0 down) and it’s increased their chance of relegation from 1.2% before the midweek matchday to 2.8%.

Of course, this is still miniscule compared to their rivals, but the supercomputer’s confidence in West Ham’s ability to survive could reduce greatly with a poor December run combined with positive results for teams around them.

A relegation rival to enjoy some positivity in midweek were Everton, who demolished Wolves 4-0 at Goodison Park on Wednesday night.

The Toffees did get help from Wolves defender Craig Dawson, who scored half of their goals for them on the night (2), while Ashley Young rolled back the years with a great free-kick to start the scoring and net his 50th goal in the competition. The 4-0 victory boosted Everton’s survival hopes, as their projected chance of relegation fell from 26.6% to 18.2%.

It’s worrying times for Wolves, who stay on nine points from 14 games and only sit above Southampton (five points) in the table. Their tally of 36 goals conceded after 14 matches is their most at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1964-65 (40 goals), a campaign in which they were relegated. Their nine defeats at this stage is their most in a top-flight season since 2010-11. Their chance of relegation has moved to 41.1%, up from 28.0% before the midweek games.

2 December

It wasn’t a great weekend for the Premier League’s struggling teams, with Crystal Palace and Southampton the only sides in the bottom seven who managed to avoid defeat.

Southampton earned just their fifth point of the season, coming from behind to draw 1-1 at Brighton on Friday night. However, Saints are still four points adrift of safety, currently on their lowest-ever points tally (5) after 13 games of a top-flight season.

That record means it’ll probably come as no shock to many that they are relegated from the Premier League in 93.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s latest round of 10,000 season simulations.

History is factored into this projection, with none of the eight sides to have won five points or fewer from their opening 13 games of a Premier League season avoiding relegation. The last top-flight team to avoid the drop after such a start was Sheffield United in 1990-91, who had four points after 13 games but ended the season in 13th place.

Fellow promoted sides Ipswich Town and Leicester City are the next most likely teams to be relegated according to the latest supercomputer projections.

Ipswich sit second from bottom, but are level on nine points with Palace and Wolves. Ipswich’s latest defeat – 1-0 at Nottingham Forest on Saturday – means they are relegated in 70.0% of current simulations, just ahead of Leicester (67.0%).

New Leicester boss Ruud van Nistelrooy watched on from the stands as the Foxes were thrashed 4-1 at Brentford this weekend, but the Dutch coach will take over with Leicester outside of the relegation zone, in 16th on 10 points.

Wolves sit in the final relegation place ahead of the midweek matchday in the Premier League after they suffered a 4-2 home loss to Bournemouth on Saturday.

Gary O’Neil’s men have started as badly before and survived, though. Back in 2010-11 they also had nine points from 13 matches but finished in 17th place and avoided relegation to the second tier. The latest supercomputer projections see them relegated to the Championship 28.0% of the time.

Everton’s winless Premier League run stretched to five games following a 4-0 defeat at Manchester United on Sunday. Just as worrying as the results are their lack of goals, with this weekend’s defeat their fourth successive league game without scoring.

As things stand, Everton are relegated at the end of the season in just over a quarter (26.6%) of the 10,000 supercomputer simulations, making them more than twice as likely to go down as Crystal Palace (12.5%).

Palace drew 1-1 at home to Newcastle on Saturday, despite only allowing their opponents one shot in the whole match. That result means they have lost just one of their last six competitive matches (W2 D3 L1), however, and seem to have turned the corner after an eight-game winless streak in the Premier League to start the season.

---

Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.