Who would have REALLY won the election if every registered voter turned up to the polls

Even if every registered voter turned up to the polls in the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump still would have beat out Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a shocking new report.

In fact, Trump would have won the popular vote by five points - rather than just the 1.7 points he beat Harris by - if the registered voters showed up to the poll, the analysis by David Schor - a data scientist for the Democratic Party - shows.

'So I think that a "we need to turn up the temperature and mobilize everyone" strategy would've made things worse,' Schor, the head of Blue Rose Research, told Eric Levitz in an interview for Vox.  

His firm had conducted 26 million voter interviews in 2024 and found that registered Democrats largely turned against the party, while moderates and those who are typically disengaged turned toward the Republicans.

'There were a lot of Democratic voters who were angry at their party last year,' he explained. 'And they were mostly moderate and conservative Democrats angry about the cost of living and other issues. And even though they couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Republican, a lot of them stayed home.

'But basically, their complaints were very similar to those of Biden voters who flipped to Trump,' Schor said. 

Meanwhile, those who were the least politically engaged swung largely against Democrats.

Those politically disengaged voters went from being a roughly neutral group in 2020 to favoring the Republicans by about 15 points in 2024, Blue Rose Research Found.

That same group, though, overwhelmingly favored Democrats during the Obama-era.

'But we're now at a point where the more people vote, the better Republicans do,' Schor said.

He also noted that Harris performed just as well as the 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton did among white conservatives, white liberals and white moderates.

Among the Hispanic and Asian voters, though, there were double-digit declines.

Schor attributed that decline to the Democratic party focusing on ideological issues, while voters were focusing on economic issues.

'I really cannot stress how much people cared about the cost of living,' he said.

'If you ask what's more important, the cost of living or some other issue picked at random, people picked the cost of living 91 percent of the time. It's really hard to get 91 percent of people to click on anything in a survey,' Schor noted.

'After the cost of living, it was the size and scope of the federal government, the budget deficit, immigration, crime and also health care. And people trusted Republicans on these issues by double-digits - except for health care, where we had a two-point advantage, which was much lower than our traditional advantage on that issue. 

'The reality is that, to the extent that Democrats try to polarize the electorate on self-descried ideology, this is just something that plays into the hands of Republicans,' the analyst concluded.

Harris, who only entered the presidential race after former President Joe Biden declared he would not seek re-election, lost in a historic fashion to Trump - including in all seven swing states.

Even in the states that were called blue, the Republican saw a groundswell of popularity that carried him to a decisive victory in what polls suggested would be one of the closest races in history.

Trump received more than 2.5 million votes than he did in 2020 and gained ground in all of the 50 states, while Harris saw a decline of seven million votes from President Joe Biden's total in his 2020 win.

The Democratic Party's favorability has now hit a record low at just 29 percent, a recent CNN poll found. 

That figure marks a 20 point drop in approval since Trump left office more than four years ago at which time approval of the Democratic party was 49 percent. 

It is also a ten point drop from just before the November election.

A new NBC News poll released Sunday similarly found only 27 percent of voters had a positive view of the Democratic Party. That was the lowest positive rating in NBC News polling history dating back to 1990. 

The record low approval of the Democratic Party has been driven by increased dissatisfaction from within, the CNN polling found.

Just 63 percent of Democrats or Democratic-leaning Independents had a favorable view of their own party, a drop from the 72 who had a favorable view of their party in January and 81 percent when President Biden took office. 

Democrats are also torn over the direction of their party should take, the polling found. 

Among Democratic-aligned adults, 52 percent said that the party leadership is taking the party in the wrong direction while 48 percent said they are taking the party in the right direction.  

At the same time, a growing number of Democrats want the party leadership to do more to stop the Republican agenda as Trump barrels through the first two months of his second term. 

The polling found 57 percent believe the party should do more to stop the GOP agenda while just 42 percent believe party leadership should work with Republicans. 

CNN noted that is a dramatic shift from Democrats' views nearly eight years ago. A September 2017 poll from Trump's first term found 74 percent of Democrats believed their party should try to work with Republicans.

Meanwhile, the favorability of the Republican party among Americans stands at 36 percent including 79 percent approval among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents. 

The approval of Republicans has remained steady since January and is down just four points from just before the November election. It's a four point uptick from where GOP favorability stood when Trump left office in 2021.