Why Black men could be key to Harris' swing-state chances

The slow ripple of Black male voters from the Democratic Party to the GOP has been two decades in the making — and now Kamala Harris is scrambling to stem the tide before it grows in key battleground states.

Why it matters: An Axios analysis of states with sizable numbers of Black voters indicates that any significant shift to Donald Trump and the GOP would spell trouble for Democrats in crucial states such as Georgia and North Carolina.

The big picture: Black men also have become a focal point in battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Democrats courting them — and sometimes chiding them for not getting firmly behind Harris, a Black woman.

• Former President Barack Obama last week criticized those Black men he cast as making "excuses" for not supporting Harris.
• Some Black men have said they're rethinking their political allegiance because of what they see as an economy that hasn't benefited them enough, discontent with Democratic policies, and a growing sense of being left behind.

State of play: The GOP has tried to attract Black men by going negative on Harris, saying that as a California prosecutor she was responsible for incarcerating "thousands of Black men" for marijuana use — a sore point for many Black Americans who have long seen criminal laws as landing unfairly on them.

• Harris refuted those claims Tuesday during an interview in Detroit with radio host Charlamagne Tha God.
• She also addressed rumors that she had a beef with singer Janet Jackson because Harris had prosecuted her late brother, Michael: Not true "on either count," she said.

By the numbers: Black men represent just under 7% of all eligible voters in the U.S. in 2024, according to the Pew Research Center.

• In 2008, only 5% of Black men voted Republican, but by 2020, that number had surged to 19% — a staggering 280% increase in 12 years.
• That's roughly 16.2 million voters, and the majority are in eight states: Texas, Georgia, Florida, New York, California, North Carolina, Maryland and Illinois.

Zoom in: Trump got roughly 19% of support from Black men in 2020 compared to 79% for President Biden, according to exit polls.

• That was a 6-point increase for Trump from 2016, when 13% of Black men voted for the Republicans, exit polls show.
• Early polls have suggested that Trump's numbers among Black men could increase this year: A Reuters survey last month had 1 in 4 Black men under age 50 supporting the ex-president.

Flashback: About 95% of Black men voted for Obama in 2008, when he was first elected president.

The intrigue: Those numbers suggest that Black men, though still overwhelmingly voting Democratic, are slowly trending toward the GOP while Black women are staunchly behind Democrats.

• It's a gender divide also seen with white and Latino voters.

Yes, but: Grassroots organizers say the misinformation about Harris may be partly to blame as they urge Black men to vote, even if not for her.

• "The constant theme we've heard from young Black men is, 'Will my vote matter?' I'm telling them, 'Just go vote,' " Khalil Thompson, founder of Win With Black Men, tells Axios.

On Monday, Harris released an economic plan focused on Black men that included proposals such as loans for entrepreneurs and support for mental health.

• Thompson was happy there was a plan, but frustrated it came just three weeks before the Nov. 5 election: "If we're such a loyal voting bloc, why are our policy points coming out days before people are already voting?"

Between the lines: Some Black men saw Obama's remarks as a lecture — and Nina Turner, a former state senator in Ohio, says that underscores how they're often (and historically) scrutinized unfairly for not being a monolithic voting bloc.

• "Democrats have this mentality that they own the Black vote, and that's part of the problem," Turner said. "Black men, especially, are starting to question that ownership and ask what's really being delivered in return for their loyalty."