Why the midterm election polls are all wrong... again! Analyst CRAIG KESHISHIAN says a hidden voter surge will change everything

On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, I informed the Daily Mail readers that the mainstream media polls were wrong.

While most of the big national surveys accurately foresaw a close national race, they missed what was happening in the seven critical swing states. Donald Trump ended up winning the White House in an electoral college romp (312-226) of Vice President Kamala Harris by sweeping in the battlegrounds.

It was a result few saw coming but I was right on the money because I'd seen it happen before.

As a member of President Ronald Reagan's vaunted polling team, we studied his blow-out victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980 – an electoral college tally of 489 to 49.

The polls in 1980 had overlooked thousands of Americans living in rural and suburban communities – folks who worked 40-hour weeks, lifted the freight, paid the bills and ran the small businesses. So, I wrote days before the 2024 vote that 'the signs are telling me that history may be repeating itself' forecasting a 'hidden surge' of Trump supporters.

Now, nearly two years later and less than three months from the November midterms, I'm convinced the polls have got it wrong again.

Except this time, the tide has turned the other way.

While nearly every pollster believes Democrats will easily win the three House seats (and likely more) necessary to wrest control of the House of Representatives from Republicans, they still think control of the Senate will be an uphill battle for the Dems.

I, emphatically, disagree.

There is a high likelihood, as I write this, that the GOP will suffer a Congressional wipeout in November, losing both the House and the Senate, dramatically shifting the balance of power in Washington and stalling the Trump agenda in its tracks.

Over the years, I've developed an algorithm that allows me to see what the polls cannot.

Most surveys are unidimensional, measuring the sentiment of a single population that answers their surveys. But my forecasting model is multidimensional, weighing voting behavior using proprietary metrics.

I have applied that methodology to the 2026 midterms and here's what I found…

Republicans cheered socialist Francesca Hong's loss against centrist David Crowley in Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary in August. Moderates and Republicans may have been glad to avoid the risk of another radical leftist in office, but they shouldn't be so gleeful.

Democratic turnout in that contest – and in similar races across the country – is far exceeding the Republican tallies.

That's a flashing red warning sign that a poll can't pick up.

In Wisconsin, 792,009 ballots were cast on the Dem side, while only 490,819 voters participated in the GOP primary, which nominated Congressman Tom Tiffany. In Michigan, hardcore socialist candidate Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary for the Senate, beating back an underwhelming establishment pick.

The turnout there was even greater than the showing in Wisconsin.

More than 1,530,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primary in the Wolverine state. On the Republican side, it was zilch, as Republican Congressman Mike Rogers ran uncontested.

These contests are creating significant media events, garnering national coverage and motivating Democrats to turnout. In November, the effect may be even more pronounced.

Remember that most college kids are home during primary season, but every left-wing college student will be back on campus in the fall, ready to pull the lever, register voters and chase ballots.

Although the late Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA and conservative activist Scott Presler have been valiantly rallying Republican voters, the Democrats – with their ballot harvesting schemes – have forged 'turnout operations' into an art form.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, voters are sleepwalking to the midterms. Without Trump on the ballot, they're not as enthusiastic.

Mark my words, if November 4 is cold and rainy, traditional Republican voters who would have crawled over broken glass to support Trump in '24, will stay home watching SportsCenter, instead of braving the elements to vote for a lacklustre candidate (I have more to say about this below).

What's more, GOP pollsters Matt Towery and Robert Cahaly and I suspect that polls are now undercounting traditional Democratic voters, who are turned off by the spectacle of the rise of Democratic Socialists and are ignoring pollsters' calls.

That would explain why Wisconsin's Hong led in the polls but came up short on Election Day.

Believe me, Democrats smell blood and will act accordingly. The GOP needs up its ground game, quickly, or face a turnout debacle.

And history is not on the their side.

I'll never forget the 1986 midterms. President Reagan was at the height of his political powers, having won re-election going away in 1984, in a 49-state romp of Democrat Walter Mondale.

A mere two years later, the economic data was good but the public response to the administration's foreign military entanglements were not. There was a devastating terrorist bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983, the President was withdrawing military personnel from Lebanon and the White House's covert backing of Nicaraguan rebels was sparking public outrage.

In the 1986 midterms, the GOP got smoked, losing eight Senate seats and control of the chamber and the Reagan agenda.

Why? Because voters expect their president to focus with laser-like intensity on the economy and they hold a particular disdain for military excursions that go awry or lose credibility.

The exception is if, and only if, the homeland is under siege, like September 11 or Pearl Harbor. In those cases, Americans rally not just around the flag, but the president, regardless of party.

Just ask George W Bush, who picked up congressional seats in the 2002 midterms, an event as rare as the Goodyear blimp landing on your lawn.

But as the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan dragged on with no end in sight, even W Bush got clobbered by a blue tidal wave and lost the House in the 2006 elections.

And let's not forget President George H W Bush, who enjoyed a 89 percent approval rating as late as March 1991, only to lose re-election the following year later to an upstart named Bill Clinton.

The H W Bush's economy was sluggish, but not overwhelming bad.

The sign hanging prominently in the Clinton War Room: 'It's the economy, stupid.'

These American presidents have some prestigious company in this space: Winston Churchill, one of the seminal figures in history, got tossed from his job, replaced by socialists months after rescuing the United Kingdom and the free world from the Nazis.

Why? Because the British people saw socialism's empty promises of economic comfort as the best solution to their post-war problems.

Compare those scenarios to today.

Sure, the White House basically flattened the inflation curve, closed the southern border and is working to enhance manufacturing, but the cost of essential consumer goods remain painfully high for too many.

Gas, groceries and utilities costs have not fallen significantly from their Covid-era heights (save drug prices) and interest rates remain lofty, stymying first-time home buyers, holders of credit card debt and those trying to access loans to start a business.

Many of these Americans are young, ethnic minorities who voted Republican for the first time in their lives in 2024. They see promises made and not kept. Additionally, America's involvement in the Iran war is increasingly unpopular with segments of Trump's base.

This will cost Republicans, big time. And the GOP doesn't have the roster of Congressional candidates capable of making the case that their party has the answers to these challenges.

Name me one ascending GOP superstar? You can't.

In short order, the Republican lose four to five Senate seats. Maybe more. Time will tell. But the past is prologue.

In January 2027, Democrats will control the House and the Senate.