By The Diplomat | Created at 2026-06-11 07:27:11 | Updated at 2026-06-17 05:16:57
6 days ago
The decision by Malaysia’s Islamist opposition party, PAS, to sever its six-year political alliance with Bersatu ahead of the Johor state election could prove to be the biggest political gift to the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) in years.
While the immediate focus has been on the future of the opposition bloc, the more consequential development may be the opportunity created for UMNO to rebuild its political dominance among Malay-Muslim voters, after a decade of declining electoral fortunes. The Johor election, widely regarded as a bellwether for national politics, could become a launchpad for UMNO’s broader resurgence ahead of the 16th General Election, which is due by 2028.
Barisan Nasional (BN), of which UMNO is the principal component, enters the Johor contest from a position of strength. The coalition secured a two-thirds majority in the outgoing state assembly at the last Johor election in 2022, winning 40 of the 56 seats. More recently, BN Chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi declared that the coalition intends to contest the next general election on its own strength, signaling a growing confidence within the party.
A comfortable victory in Johor would reinforce that confidence. Zahid himself has described the election as a potential catalyst for a nationwide “blue wave” comeback, restoring BN as a dominant force in Malaysian politics.
The PAS-Bersatu split has strengthened UMNO’s hand in two important ways. First, it weakens the opposition by removing the partnership that combined PAS’s formidable grassroots machinery with Bersatu’s Malay nationalist appeal. Second, it reopens the possibility of cooperation between PAS and UMNO under a revived Muafakat Nasional framework. Muafakat Nasional was an alliance formed between PAS and UMNO in 2019-2022.
Speculation about a PAS-UMNO rapprochement has intensified since the so-called “Perlis debacle” of December 2025, when the state’s Chief Minister Shukri Ramli, a member of PAS, was forced from office following the withdrawal of support by several assemblymen. The episode deepened tensions between PAS and Bersatu and revived discussions within PAS about alternative political alignments.
Those discussions have become more visible in Johor. PAS state chief Mahfodz Mohamed has acknowledged informal contacts with BN and indicated that PAS is willing to explore electoral arrangements to avoid multi-cornered contests. Although no formal agreement exists, the political signaling is significant.
For UMNO, even limited cooperation with PAS could yield substantial electoral benefits. The combination of UMNO’s extensive party machinery and PAS’s loyal religious support base has historically proven effective in consolidating the Malay-Muslim vote and reducing vote-splitting in rural constituencies.
PAS leaders themselves have openly discussed reviving Muafakat Nasional. The party’s Deputy President, Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, recently called for a “Muafakat Nasional 2.0,” arguing that the original alliance was created to protect Malay-Muslim political interests and should be revived in the current circumstances.
Electoral arithmetic also favors some form of cooperation. In straight contests, vote transfers between PAS and UMNO supporters could prove decisive.
UMNO’s interest in such an arrangement is hardly surprising. Although it remains a key component of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government, many within the party continue to view the current coalition as a temporary arrangement rather than a permanent political home. After spending years outside the centre of power, UMNO is using strongholds such as Johor to rebuild its organizational strength and prepare for the next general election, when it hopes to restore itself to its position of once-unassailable dominance.
Given Malaysia’s increasingly fractured political landscape, PAS’s decision to end its alliance with Bersatu may prompt a broader realignment of political forces. Whether that ultimately results in a formal PAS-UMNO partnership remains uncertain. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that the biggest beneficiary of the PAS-Bersatu divorce is not either of these parties, but UMNO.
