Will Merz’s tough talk on China fizzle out if he becomes leader of Germany?

Friedrich Merz, front runner to become Germany’s next leader in February, likes to talk tough on China.

Merz, 69, became leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in 2022.

He has consistently called China “an increasing threat to [German] security”, been critical of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision to allow a Chinese state-owned company to purchase a stake in the Hamburg port, and has advocated for improved coordination with major European allies to rethink ties with Beijing.

The CDU and its conservative sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are leading opinion polls by a significant margin ahead of elections due on February 23 after Scholz’s coalition government collapsed last month.

But while observers expect a Merz-led government to adopt a more critical stance towards China, they question whether his harsh rhetoric on Beijing would translate into firm policy.

As chancellor, Merz would have to navigate a barrage of domestic and international challenges, including Germany’s ailing economy, the trade fallout of Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the call to safeguard German business interests.

Joerg Wuttke, partner at US-based advisory firm DGA Albright Stonebridge Group, has met Merz several times. He described the former corporate lawyer as “probing”, “curious” and “interested” in China.