Will the Negeri Sembilan state polls be Bersatu’s toughest test yet?

KUALA LUMPUR – During the recent Johor state election campaign, a July 7 rally in Parit Raja outside Batu Pahat drew fewer than 100 people despite the presence of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia president Muhyiddin Yassin. The poor turnout was especially embarrassing for the former prime minister and one of Johor’s longest-serving menteri besars.

Elsewhere, Bersatu candidates even resorted to campaign posters highlighting personal qualities such as being “married” and “loyal” – an unconventional appeal that underscored the party’s struggle to capture voters’ attention.

The scenes illustrated the challenges facing Bersatu as it heads into the Negeri Sembilan state election on Aug 1.

A party that once appeared to be on an unstoppable rise now faces what analysts say could be its defining electoral test. Bersatu must prove it can remain politically relevant on its own after a bitter fallout with Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) effectively left it outside Perikatan Nasional (PN), while the emergence of splinter party Parti Wawasan Negara has further exposed fractures within its ranks.

Merdeka Center for Opinion Research programmes director Ibrahim Suffian told The Straits Times: “Whether Bersatu will remain a potent (political) force, I have my doubts.”

Johor offers an uncomfortable benchmark. In the constituencies it contested in the recent polls, Bersatu secured only about 5.5 per cent of the statewide Malay vote, Ibrahim noted.

“The key question is where Bersatu goes from here,” he said.

Weakened a decade after formation

Set up in 2016 in the wake of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal, Bersatu was once the vehicle that helped carry former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad back to power in the historic 2018 General Election.

It later put Muhyiddin in Putrajaya and became one of the dominant forces in PN, alongside Islamist party PAS.

A decade after its formation, however, the party found itself severely weakened in the Johor state election on July 11, failing to win any of the 16 seats it contested.

Analysts say the Johor polls merely exposed the deeper structural problems that had been building within Bersatu for years.

Amir Fareed Rahim, strategic director of consultancy KRA Group, said: “Bersatu is struggling as it finds itself squeezed between a resurgent UMNO and a dominant PAS. It lacks PAS’ grassroots strength and UMNO’s governing credentials, while internal disputes and strained relations within PN have further weakened its position.”

Bersatu is increasingly being sidelined by other Malay nationalist parties, he added.

It now finds itself politically isolated after its relationship with PN soured and as PAS moves towards an informal pact with UMNO, forcing Bersatu to contest under its own banner.

Bersatu will face Wawasan in four seats at the Negeri Sembilan state polls: Gemas, Klawang, Mambau and Sikamat. 

The results could provide a key measure of whether Bersatu can survive as a credible centrist Malay nationalist alternative to UMNO. 

Bersatu is fielding 24 candidates across Negeri Sembilan’s 36 state seats, including two from the United for the Rights of Malaysians Party, an Indian-based party led by former Penang deputy chief minister P. Ramasamy. 

Muhyiddin has sought to portray Bersatu’s break with PN not as a setback, but as a chance for the party to rebuild and redefine its political direction. 

Declaring Bersatu the country’s “only opposition”, he argued that ruling coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH) and the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance are now part of the government, while PN’s cooperation with BN has weakened its role as an opposition force.

He also slammed UMNO for using the cause of Malay and Muslim unity to win the support of Malay voters.

“Trust me, this is nothing more than a charade to mislead the Malay community and the people in order to gain power. Bersatu is free from this charade,” Muhyiddin said in a Facebook post on July 18.

Splitting the Malay vote?

Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said Bersatu “faces a do-or-die battle as both PAS and UMNO join forces to eliminate it”.

Yet Mazlan Ali, a political analyst from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, believes Bersatu should not be dismissed.

Based on his research, Bersatu could attract between 10 per cent and 13 per cent of the vote in urban and semi-urban constituencies such as Paroi, Klawang and Lenggeng.

“That level of support is enough to split the Malay vote. There is a possibility it could create problems for BN-PN,” said Mazlan.

Beyond the poor turnout back in Parit Raja, Muhyiddin’s speech was also short on policy.

While rivals BN and PH highlighted their achievements and plans for Johor, Muhyiddin returned to themes centred on race and religion, accusing PH’s Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party of being anti-Islam and anti-Malay despite its candidate being a Malay Muslim.

“Is this who we want to support?” Muhyiddin asked.

Across the street, palm oil plantation worker Zamri shook his head.

“All these non-stop attacks,” he lamented. “Why not talk instead about their plans for Johor?”

The focus now shifts to Negeri Sembilan, where analysts say the Aug 1 vote will provide the clearest indication yet of whether Bersatu can remain politically relevant on its own.