Wisconsin, Florida elections get spin treatment as Dems, GOP look ahead to 2026 midterms

MILWAUKEE, Wis. — Democrats are celebrating a larger-than-expected victory in a high-profile and historically expensive election in battleground Wisconsin, in the first statewide ballot box contest since President Donald Trump's return to power in January.

Liberal-leaning Judge Susan Crawford topped conservative-leaning Judge Brad Schimel by roughly ten percentage points — with some votes still being tabulated — to preserve the liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which is likely to rule going forward on crucial issues like congressional redistricting, voting right, labor rights and abortion.

With a massive infusion of money from Democratic-aligned and Republican-aligned groups from outside Wisconsin, which turned the race into the most expensive judicial election in the nation's history, the contest partially transformed into a referendum on Trump's sweeping and controversial moves during the opening months of his second tour of duty in the White House.

Also front and center in the technically non-partisan showdown was someone who, along with Trump, was not on the ballot: billionaire Elon Musk, the president's top donor and White House adviser, who inserted himself into the race.

LIBERAL-LEANING CANDIDATE WINS FIRST MAJOR STATEWIDE ELECTION OF THE YEAR

Elon Musk speaks during a town hall on Sunday, March 30, 2025 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

"The people of Wisconsin squarely rejected the influence of Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and billionaire special interests," Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin claimed.

And the DNC, looking ahead to next year's bigger contests in the 2026 midterm elections, called the showdown in Wisconsin a "bellwether race."

But Republicans came out on top in Tuesday's other marquee contests, holding control of two vacant congressional seats in twin special elections in red state Florida. The double-digit victories by the Republican candidates will give the GOP a little bit of breathing room in the House of Representatives, where the party is holding onto a very fragile majority as it aims to pass Trump's agenda.

REPUBLICANS HOLD CONTROL OF TWO VACANT CONGRESSIONAL SEATS IN THIS RED STATE

"The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump’s America First agenda, and their votes can’t be bought by national Democrats," Republican National Committee chair Mike Whatley argued.

The Democratic candidates in the two special congressional elections vastly outraised their Republican counterparts — a sign that the party's base is angry and energized — which forced GOP-aligned outside groups to pour money and resources into the races during the final stretch. And the Democrat candidates ended up losing by 15 and 14 points in districts that Trump carried by 37 and 30 points in last November's presidential election.

Democrats quickly spotlighted how the party "overperformed" in Florida. And the House Majority PAC, the top super PAC supporting House Democrats, touted that the results showed "that the political headwinds are firmly at our backs heading into 2026."

But Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, argued that "Democrats just lit over $20,000,000 on fire in a doomed-to-fail effort to make two deep-red Florida districts competitive — and got blown out of the water in the most embarrassing way."

Republican Randy Fine, center, won the April 1, 2025 special election to fill the vacancy left by Mike Waltz's resignation to be Trump's national security advisor. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

But the results in Florida, and especially Wisconsin, will likely give the Democrats a jolt, and validate their efforts to target Musk.

Musk, the chief executive of Tesla and SpaceX, who has taken a buzz saw to the federal government workforce as he steers Trump's recently created Department of Government Efficiency, dished out roughly $20 million in the Wisconsin race through aligned groups in support of Schimel.

And Musk, in a controversial move, handed out $1 million checks at a rally in Green Bay on Sunday evening to two Wisconsin voters who had already cast ballots in the contest and had signed a petition to stop "activist judges."

"I never could have imagined that I'd be taking on the richest man in the world, for justice in Wisconsin. And we won," Crawford said in her election night victory speech.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in the chamber, argued that Wisconsin voters "sent a decisive message to Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and DOGE by rejecting an extreme Republican for their Supreme Court: our Democracy is not for sale."

"Anyone who counted Democrats out was dead wrong," he emphasized.

But Democrats have a serious brand issue right now.

The party's favorable rating sank to all-time lows in separate national polls conducted last month by CNN and NBC News. Those numbers followed a record low for Democrats in a Quinnipiac University survey in the field in February. 

Additionally, the latest Fox News National poll, indicated that congressional Democrats' approval rating is at 30%, near an all-time low. And Democrat activists are irate over their party's inability to blunt President Donald Trump's agenda.

And when it comes to normally low-turnout off-year elections and special elections, the party in power - which in the nation's capital is clearly the Republicans - often faces political headwinds.

"We'll get up to fight another day. But this wasn't our day," Schimel said in his concession speech.

Judge Brad Schimel, the conservative-leaning candidate in Wisconsin's Supreme Court election, seen here conceding his election loss in Pewaukee, Wisconsin, on April 1, 2025. (Fox News - Paul Steinhauser)

And Wisconsin GOP chair Brian Schimming noted that "coming off a successful November, we knew the April elections would be challenging."

Republicans note that Democrats enjoyed a slew of special election victories in 2023 and 2024 before suffering serious setbacks in last November's elections.

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"Special elections are special for a reason, and not always useful canaries in the coal mines for what lies ahead," veteran Republican strategist Colin Reed told Fox News Digital. "While they can be used as a barometer for energy, they are also a reflection of the individual candidates whose names are on the ballots."

And Reed argued that "the bigger challenge for the Democrats looking ahead is the lack of a vision or governing agenda beyond reflexive and blanket opposition to the White House and their continued positioning way outside the mainstream on a slew of common sense issues."