By The Jerusalem Post (World News) | Created at 2024-09-30 16:45:19 | Updated at 2024-10-01 04:15:54
11 hours ago
Iran is grasping for a success, after weeks of seeing its Hezbollah proxy reeling from blows.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN SEPTEMBER 30, 2024 19:30
IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian parliament members in Tehran, last month.
(photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)
Iran spent years developing proxies to fight Israel. It invested heavily in Hezbollah, as well as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, Hamas and Iraqi militias.
Iran’s goal was to use the pro-ISIS period in the region to create the circumstances for a multi-front war against Israel. After the October 7 attack, Iran put this plan into action. It seemed to go well for Iran for most of the year.
However, setbacks for Hezbollah over the last two weeks, including the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, have been a major setback for Tehran.
Now Iran has to grasp for a game plan. It’s strategy so far is not clear. After October 7 it appeared that Iran believed it could leverage the Hamas attack from Gaza as a way to bring Hamas to power in the West Bank. It sought to achieve this by supporting arms smuggling to groups in the West Bank. It also sought to destabilize Jordan.
However, the IDF has not only weakened Hamas in Gaza, Israel has also cracked down on terror in the West Bank through the use of more military force in July and August.
Iran has leaned on the Houthis and Iraqi militias in the last two weeks of September. The Houthis launched three ballistic missiles at Israel. Iraqi militias have targeted Eilat and targeted other areas in Israel. On September 30 the pro-Iranian Al-Mayadeen media said that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad carried out several attacks in Gaza.
The article pointed to an attack in Khan Younis and also one targeting IDF forces in the Netzarim corridor in central Gaza. The attack on the Netzarim area was carried out by PIJ, the article claimed.
In Iraq the Iranian-backed “Islamic Resistance” claimed to have carried out four recent attacks on Israel. They claimed to use drones and missiles. It is not clear if any of the attacks actually reached Israel. However, what is important for Iran is to show that groups it backs can still carry out attacks, even if the attacks don’t succeed. Iraqi militias have also been targeting Eilat with drones in recent days.
Iran’s IRNA state media highlighted this as one of the many examples of its attempt to rally groups to strike at Israel.
Hezbollah, weakened by daily strikes from the IDF, also claimed more attacks on September 30. It said it had launched rockets at Safed and also other areas in northern Israel.
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The pro-Iranian media claimed that Hezbollah carried out eleven different attacks on September 30 targeting areas such as Rosh Pina. According to Iran’s IRNA, Hezbollah used its Fadi-1 rockets to target sites in northern Israel.
Iran is at a crossroads
Iran knows it is at a crossroads. After 11 months of attacks on Israel, it is feeling that the tide may turn against it. Iran planned for a long war of attrition against Israel. It did not expect Israel to seize the initiative in Lebanon. It is likely concerned after the IDF strikes against the Houthis that the IDF is unlimbering itself and is prepared for more long range operations.
Iran has watched how Israel was forced to contend with fighting in Gaza for most of the year. The goal for Iran was that it could exploit Israel being focused on Gaza, to accomplish other things in the region.
Now Iran is likely concerned that things have shifted in Israel’s favor. One example of this can be seen in Arabic language media, such as Al-Ain media in the UAE. Reports there paint a glowing picture of Israel’s strike on Nasrallah. Iran is aware of the battle for hearts and minds in the region. Iran also knows it has many enemies in the region.
While Saudi Arabia was willing to reconcile with Iran, it doesn’t mean that many Saudis are really reconciled with Tehran. Many of the voices in the region are watching closely and they see Israel’s success. Iran knows it could easily lose the “street” it has sought to cultivate. Many people in the region don’t like the Houthis, Hezbollah or the Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi.
The Hashd in Iraq is an umbrella group of numerous pro-Iranian groups. Iraqis have bitter memories of these militias killing protesters back in 2019. Now Iran is grasping for a success, after weeks of seeing its Hezbollah proxy reeling from blows. Tehran likely doesn’t really care if the IDF strikes Lebanon, its main concern is loss of influence and prestige in the wider region.
