With Trump 2.0, it will be every country for itself

As US president-elect Donald Trump completes his cabinet nominations, his policy intentions have become clearer. His nominees are almost all white, male, right-wing loyalists, many with media experience, who are inclined towards tariffs and have an isolationist bent.

Tech mogul Elon Musk will co-head a new department of government efficiency while tariff-happy Howard Lutnick, the billionaire CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, is the pick for commerce secretary. The three front runners for Treasury secretary are Key Square Capital founder Scott Bessent, Apollo Global Management’s billionaire investor Marc Rowan and Federal Reserve Board veteran Kevin Warsh.

Trump will take office with an extremely strong hand, with Republicans controlling Congress and a conservative-dominated Supreme Court. He is expected to be tough on rivals and allies alike, preferring bilateral negotiations over the multilateral channels he feels cramp his transactional style.

Many expect Trump’s policy road map to look like the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 manifesto, which presses for the dismantling of the administrative state to return power to the American people. Trump wants Musk’s new department, for instance, to help radically overhaul the government bureaucracy. Executive orders will be used to achieve this.

The manifesto’s anti-China stance is evident, not least in its call to outlaw Tik-Tok. The chapter on the department of defence says: “By far the most significant danger to Americans’ security, freedoms, and prosperity is China.” Chinese policymakers should be under no illusions – all guns will be pointed at Beijing.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe is clearly worried Trump will do a deal that leaves it to bear the brunt of funding Ukraine, whether in continuing the war or reconstructing its ruined economy.