WNBA trade grades: How the Kelsey Plum-Jewell Loyd blockbuster shakes up three teams -- and possibly the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes

Who wins Sunday's blockbuster WNBA trade involving All-Stars Jewell Loyd and Kelsey Plum, plus the No. 2 pick of the upcoming draft?

As reported by ESPN, the three-team trade fulfills Loyd's trade request by sending her to the Las Vegas Aces to replace Plum, who will join the Los Angeles Sparks via sign-and-trade after the Aces used their core designation to take her out of free agency. Meanwhile, the Storm move up from No. 9 to No. 2 in April's draft -- which could facilitate an offer to land the No. 1 pick from the Dallas Wings if top prospect Paige Bueckers of the UConn Huskies prefers not to play in Dallas.

WNBA free agency, which opened for negotiations on Jan. 21 with players free to sign contracts starting Feb. 1, has moved slowly as the league's other teams awaited the outcome of negotiations between Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Seattle. Expect more blockbusters now that this domino has fallen, though none might be as important as a trade remaking the roster of the two-time champion Aces and heralding the Sparks' return to playoff contention.

Let's break down the implications and grade the trade for all three teams.

Las Vegas Aces: B+

If Plum wanted out, Loyd was almost certainly the best like-for-like replacement the Aces could get. There's great familiarity on both sides. Loyd has teamed with Chelsea Gray, A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young for USA Basketball, winning a gold last summer, and she has played more playoff games against Las Vegas than any other opponent -- averaging 16.7 PPG in those games, better than Loyd's overall playoff average of 15.7 PPG.

Loyd also happens to share an agent, Jade-Li English, with her new teammates Gray, Wilson and Young. After the ugly breakup between Loyd and the Storm, which culminated in a trade request last month, those ties can help Las Vegas feel confident there won't be a repeat and that Loyd will stay with the Aces beyond the one season remaining on her contract.

From a basketball standpoint, the obvious difference is Loyd comes to Las Vegas knowing she won't be the first option on offense. Loyd's spot in the pecking order in Seattle after the additions of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike was less clear. Although Loyd remained the Storm's leader in terms of usage rate (29%), Ogwumike was Seattle's best player, earning All-WNBA second-team honors as Loyd was shut out.

Part of the issue was Loyd's adjustment in terms of shot selection after drinking from a firehose on offense in 2023, when Seattle had just one other double-figure scorer (Ezi Magbegor) and she set a single-season record for points scored that Wilson subsequently broke last year. Loyd's usage rate went down alongside Diggins-Smith and Ogwumike, but she took too many off-balance jumpers early in the shot clock.

Per Second Spectrum tracking, Loyd's 39.8% quantified shot quality -- the effective field goal percentage we'd expect from an average player on the same shots based on location, type and distance to nearby defenders -- was lowest among all players with at least 50 attempts. Plum's quantified shot quality, by contrast, was 47.5%.

We don't have Second Spectrum data for Loyd's time playing alongside Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart, which resulted in WNBA championships in 2018 and 2020, but Loyd's efficiency was far better. Loyd shot 38% from 3-point range and had a .541 true shooting percentage from 2017 through 2022, as compared to 27% on 3s and a .497 true shooting percentage in 2024.

By teaming up with another MVP, plus two other Olympians, Loyd is choosing a role similar to the bulk of her Storm career. From 2018 through 2022, Loyd's usage rate was 26% of Seattle's plays, in the same ballpark as Plum's 25% usage last season.

Adding Loyd's supermax salary ($249,032) will make it more challenging for the Aces to build out their roster. Including Plum, Las Vegas' stars had repeatedly taken below-market extensions, meaning Wilson was previously the Aces' highest-paid player for 2025 at $200,000, according to salary data from HerHoopStats.com.

Even with the flexibility of non-guaranteed contracts for centers Megan Gustafson and Kiah Stokes, Las Vegas will probably have to choose between adding one more player at max-type money or splitting that salary among multiple veterans. The latter scenario could include bringing back key contributors Alysha Clark and Tiffany Hayes, both unrestricted free agents.

Flipping a 2026 first-round pick that has a decent chance of being lower in a 15-team league than the second-round pick they're getting back this year (No. 13 overall) helps the Aces financially, as that player will be on a modest rookie contract. Effectively, Las Vegas replaced the team's 2025 first-round pick that the WNBA rescinded due to impermissible benefits.

Of course, we've also seen the Aces get discounts before by virtue of free agents' desire to play for a championship contender in a first-class facility. If Las Vegas can find a way to add Loyd and a top free agent without sacrificing depth, this grade will bump up to a straight A.

Los Angeles Sparks: B-

Adding Plum is a fascinating move for the Sparks, signaling their intent to snap a four-year playoff drought by accelerating the timetable on their rebuild by upgrading the backcourt.

We can probably trace the decision to push the pedal on contending to the trade Los Angeles made on the eve of 2024 free agency, acquiring the No. 4 pick (used on Rickea Jackson) from the Storm along with Kia Nurse in exchange for the Sparks' 2026 first-round pick. Without that pick, Los Angeles didn't stand to benefit from another season in the lottery.

Giving up the No. 2 pick in this deal is painful for the Sparks, who have gone from dreaming of adding Bueckers to their young talent by winning the lottery to now having only the No. 9 pick in this year's first two rounds. Still, given the difficulty of attracting top talent without a dedicated practice facility, I can understand why they wanted to take advantage of Plum's interest.

Despite going 8-32 in 2024, Los Angeles already has plenty of frontcourt pieces in place. Dearica Hamby is coming off an All-Star season that saw her finish second in Most Improved Player voting, while Jackson was chosen for the All-Rookie team and No. 2 pick Cameron Brink was on track to doing so before a season-ending ACL tear in June. Veteran Azura Stevens is a fourth capable frontcourt starter.

The Sparks' backcourt was their undoing. Besides those four players, eight of the other 10 Los Angeles regulars -- all but Rae Burrell and restricted free agent Aari McDonald -- rated worse than replacement level by my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. More generally, Los Angeles hasn't had an All-Star guard since Gray left for the Aces as an unrestricted free agent before the 2021 season.

Enter Plum, who will likely be the best guard to change teams this offseason. An All-Star each of the last three seasons, she peaked as an All-WNBA first team pick in 2022, when Las Vegas won the first of its back-to-back titles. Presuming the Sparks can re-sign Plum after this season, they'll have a window to win while she's still playing at an All-Star level and their 2024 first-round picks are approaching their prime years.

To help Plum, Los Angeles should try to continue upgrading the backcourt. Plum didn't miss Gray alongside her in the backcourt quite as much as a shooting slump to start 2024 made it seem, but her shot quality improved after Gray's return from a foot injury. Before Gray's first start on June 21, Plum's quantified shot quality was 45% according to Second Spectrum's metric, putting her in the 33rd percentile league wide. The rest of the season, that improved to a league-average 49%.

It's possible Julie Allemand could be the playmaker the Sparks need. The Belgian point guard was set to join Los Angeles after a February trade only to be sidelined by an ankle injury that required surgery. Allemand averaged 5.8 APG in her only full WNBA campaign as a starter for the Indiana Fever in 2020. Back healthy after missing the Olympics, Allemand is averaging 7.3 PPG and a team-high 6.1 APG in EuroLeague play this season for Fenerbahce.

Alternatively, Los Angeles could still add another max player to Plum in free agency. Courtney Vandersloot would be a logical target.

Blockbuster WNBA deal: The Seattle Storm are trading six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd to the Las Vegas Aces in a multi-team move that sends three-time All-Star Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks, sources tell me, @ramonashelburne, @alexaphilippou, @kendra__andrews. pic.twitter.com/OlRb37RKIA

Seattle Storm: A-

Trading Loyd for a package built around draft picks probably wasn't Plan A for the Storm, who are expected to re-sign Ogwumike and cored player Gabby Williams to go with Diggins-Smith and Magbegor as a veteran group hoping to contend now.

Swapping Loyd for Plum straight up would have been convenient for Seattle, but Plum evidently wasn't as interested in returning to where she starred at the University of Washington as going back to her native southern California. The Storm could still trade the No. 2 pick to another team for veteran help -- for example, a package built around Ariel Atkins from the rebuilding Washington Mystics -- but I think getting that high in the draft changes the equation.

In particular, landing the No. 2 pick suddenly puts Seattle in position to make a run at the No. 1 pick if Bueckers tells the Wings she'd rather return for a sixth year of college eligibility rather than come to Dallas. Given their year-old practice facility, strong fan support and history with UConn point guards, the Storm would surely be an attractive landing spot for Bueckers.

Not only could Seattle offer the Wings the chance to draft the same player at No. 2 they'd take with the top pick if Bueckers passed on the draft, but multiple additional first-rounders -- including the Sparks' 2026 first-rounder, which has upside if Los Angeles just misses the playoffs because the WNBA lottery standings reflect record over the past two seasons combined.

All told, the Storm now have a league-high five first-round picks over the next three years to offer for No. 1. (The Chicago Sky, who pick third, also hold five first-round picks but are unable to trade either of their 2026 first-rounders because they were previously swapped.)

If Bueckers ends up going No. 1 to Dallas, or another team, Seattle would have its pick of Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Olivia Miles, USC Trojans post Kiki Iriafen and French center Dominique Malonga. None fill an immediate need for the Storm -- it's unclear whether any would start as rookies -- but each have the long-term potential to be part of a young core including Magbegor (25) and Jordan Horston (23) and the pair of 2026 first-rounders.

Replacing Loyd's supermax salary with the No. 2 pick, set to make $78,331, gives Seattle more cap flexibility. Even if Williams also takes the supermax offer guaranteed here by the core designation and Ogwumike signs for the max, the Storm could make another near-max offer to a free agent.

There's no obvious replacement for Loyd in unrestricted free agency, but Seattle has the flexibility to add a bigger wing like Clark or Aerial Powers or could try to add another ball handler, with Vandersloot and Natisha Hiedeman as realistic options.

As for Li, she's an interesting fit on a Storm team with the lithe Magbegor at center. Unrestricted free agent Mercedes Russell, who's unlikely to return given her friendship with Loyd, matched up against post-up centers the last couple of seasons. Now that role could fall to the 6-foot-7 Li, who saw extended minutes last season against the Connecticut Sun (Brionna Jones), Dallas Wings (Teaira McCowan) and Phoenix Mercury (Brittney Griner).

Perhaps best for Seattle, Li is a reserved free agent who is likely to play next season for the league minimum of $66,079. That's important for a Storm team that will be trying to stretch every dollar filling out the bench.

Barring a trade for Bueckers or a veteran shooting guard, Seattle probably won't have as strong a roster in 2025 as last season, when the Storm looked like contenders entering the season. But Seattle is suddenly in position to win now while also building through the draft for the first time since taking Loyd and Stewart with the No. 1 pick in 2015 and 2016, respectively.